The Pittsburgh metropolitan area lost 13,755 residents between July 2020 and July 2021, according to U.S. Census estimates.
The biggest factor of that loss was the region’s natural decline, which is when an area experiences more deaths than births. The Pittsburgh metro area’s natural decline of 10,383 was the largest natural decline of any metro area in the United States, according to census estimates.
The Pittsburgh metro area includes Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Fayette, Washington and Westmoreland counties. Data has not yet been broken down by municipality.
The estimates come a year after the official decennial census figures showed a growing population for Allegheny County and the Pittsburgh metro area. The official census is a more complete count than one-year estimates, and estimates during the past decade appeared to undercount official figures for Pittsburgh.
University of Pittsburgh economist Chris Briem said he suspects the decennial count showed growth mostly at the front end of the 2010s, and new estimates are confirming Pittsburgh’s above-average age is catching up with the region.
Briem added that covid-related deaths are impacting population figures here, as they are across the country.
“Story everywhere is covid is impacting mortality. Everywhere is facing that,” Briem said. “But it is still more extreme here.”
Every county in the Pittsburgh metro area experienced natural decline between 2020 and 2021, even Butler and Washington counties, which gained population overall. Allegheny County had 3,862 more deaths than births, and Westmoreland County had 2,536 more deaths than births. Allegheny and Westmoreland had the two largest natural declines of Pennsylvania counties.
Many counties in the Pittsburgh region have an older population than state and national averages, and Briem said covid likely accelerated the region’s problems with natural decline.
“Covid has pulled a lot of deaths from the future into now,” Briem said.
He said covid also may be affecting domestic migration numbers, with remote work probably nudging people to live outside urban areas. Exurban counties in the region such as Butler, Washington and Westmoreland saw significant domestic migration increases, meaning more residents moved in than moved out.
Westmoreland County, long known for struggling to attract new residents, might have seen a covid migration bump. Westmoreland saw a positive net domestic migration of 1,560 residents from 2020 to 2021, the largest of any county in the Pittsburgh region.
Meanwhile, Allegheny County saw a negative net domestic migration figure of 7,365 residents. Overall, the Pittsburgh metro area lost 4,276 residents to net domestic migration.
Briem said the Pittsburgh region’s population decline numbers normally are somewhat offset by the arrival of new immigrants, but those numbers have shrunk over the past couple of years.
The Pittsburgh metro area brought in a net increase of only about 800 immigrants between 2020 and 2021.
Pennsylvania as a whole lost about 25,000 residents between July 2020 and July 2021. The state’s natural decline — nearly 31,000 people — was the second largest in the United States, eclipsed only by Florida.
Ryan Deto is a Tribune-Review staff writer. You can contact Ryan by email at rdeto@triblive.com or via Twitter .