Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov told journalists on March 13 that the final hurdles between a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan are now “resolved.” Armenia’s foreign ministry said the same, explaining that the text is in place and only the timing and location of the signing still need to be ironed out.
In order for the peace deal to move forward Armenia reportedly conceded on two longstanding demands from Baku: the withdrawal of third-country forces from the border and waiving of international legal claims against Azerbaijan.
Absent from the proposed deal, however, are any resolutions to long-standing sticking points between the two sides, such as the “Zangezur Corridor” across southern Armenia, which would connect Azerbaijan to its exclave Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic (and Turkey) and is wholeheartedly opposed by Iran.
On the very same day the two countries announced the deal, the Azerbaijan president said he doesn’t trust Armenia and attacked the Western media, France, and USAID, offering to provide the Trump administration details on the agency’s operations in the country in order to help “drain the swamp.”
Azerbaijani media also keeps pushing the line that Armenia is preparing for war.
Azerbaijani sources report Armenia is deploying offensive weapons purchased from India along the border with Nakhchivan, Azerbaijan.
Additionally, ITV claims Armenia is preparing for war with Azerbaijan. pic.twitter.com/zrceekYqgA
— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 16, 2025
The reason I am so suspicious of any arrangement Armenia enters into with Azerbaijan is how heavily embedded the US is in the country, e.g., the US armed forces now has representatives stationed in the Armenian Defense Ministry. And I’m struggling to think of an example off the top of my head of when the US helped shepherd a deal to bring peace and prosperity to any region of the world. On top of that, Azerbaijan is in bed with the Israelis. So we have here two countries at odds since the dissolution of the USSR, but which are in other ways now two sides to the same coin due to their international partners.
Indeed, should there be another round of fighting between the two sides, it would be a situation in which Turkey and Israel are largely arming and supporting Azerbaijan — as happened in the 2020 conflict — and Armenia is using recently supplied weaponry from the likes of France, India, and the US.
So let’s look at some potential ulterior motives for this “peace deal.” There are really two options, which are detailed in the infamous 2019 RAND report “Extending Russia” — much of which has come to pass — that of course includes a section on the South Caucasus. Even the authors thought it unlikely at the time that Washington would be able to peel Armenia away from Moscow as has happened over the last few years. But the report also mentions how important the region is for American efforts to destabilize Iran:
While the principal aim of these policies would be to extend Russia, closer relationships with Georgia, Azerbaijan, or Armenia might yield important secondary benefits for the United States. The geographic position of Azerbaijan makes it a prime location for both intelligence-gathering and deterrence measures relating to Iran, especially because many of Iran’s Kurdish and Iranian populations are concentrated near the Azeri-Iranian border.
Even if Baku maintains it is at odds with Washington, it is already accused by Iran of allowing Israel to operate intelligence operations out of its territory. But let’s first look at how a potential deal would affect Moscow before turning to Tehran.
Shrinking Russian Presence
Despite the ongoing tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, what the proposed deal does include is a blow to the Russian presence in the region as it reportedly calls for the complete removal of “third-party forces” from the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, which Bne Intellinews says is a likely reference to Russian peacekeepers and security forces.
This continues a trend of sidelining Russia, which is keen on opening more logistics corridors in the region. Moscow previously handled peace talks between the two sides before Armenia pushed for dialogue in Western formats and eventually Baku and Yerevan held one-on-one talks.
On October 8, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian and Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the withdrawal of Russian border guards from the Armenian-Iranian border checkpoint. And earlier this month Armenia took over the checkpoint on its border with Turkey — although it remains non-operational. Since 1992 Armenia’s borders with Türkiye and Iran had been the responsibility of Russian troops. And as Armenia has embraced NATO, there has been increasing talk of closing the Russian military base at Gyumri in Armenia.
Roughly 2,000 Russian peacekeepers arrived on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border in late 2020 after Moscow brokered a ceasefire that suspended fighting in the second Karabakh War. They had already started to leave last year after Armenia recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as Azerbaijan territory (as it is internationally) and then blamed Moscow for not preventing the Azerbaijan takeover, which led to the displacement of more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians.
The steady outflow of Russian forces from the region could pose an issue on the proposed Zangezur Corridor, a 42-kilometer strip of land in southern Armenia wedged between Azerbaijan and its exclave, Nakhchivan, and bordered by Iran to the south. It is one of the best routes at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, and is therefore one of the most watched pieces of land for the vital issues of energy transfer and trade logistics.
Baku wants travel of people and cargo between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan to be free of inspection and customs and expects Yerevan to agree to the deployment of Russian border guards along the corridor. Moscow agrees with the deployment of its border guards, even if it doesn’t see eye to eye on the customs issue (it wants the Russians to conduct the security checks). Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan says that Yerevan is ready to unblock transport and economic routes within its sovereignty, jurisdiction and territorial integrity. In the past he has floated the idea of Russia monitoring the corridor “remotely” and entrusting Zangezur’s security to foreign private security forces. This despite Point 9 of the trilateral statement signed between Azerbaijan, Russia, and Armenia in 2020 following the Second Karabakh War, which reads:
All economic and transport links in the region shall be unblocked. The Republic of Armenia shall guarantee the safety of transport communication between the western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic with a view to organize the unimpeded movement of citizens, vehicles and cargo in both directions. Control over transport communication shall be exercised by the Border Guard Service bodies of the FSS of Russia.
Then there’s the timing of the “peace” announcement, which some argue didn’t sit well with the Kremlin:
The announcement comes amid media speculation of escalation and delays in Armenia-Turkey rapprochement, stalled over 2 years without a Baku-Yerevan peace deal—all as U.S.-Russia talks on Ukraine reshape Europe’s security.
In short: Moscow won’t be happy. https://t.co/3csYUosUtj
— Olesya Vartanyan (@Olesya_vArt) March 13, 2025
So a win for the West — I guess? Is that why French President Emmanuel Macron and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock are cheerleading the announcement? And GOP Representative Joe Wilson who chairs the U.S. Helsinki Commission is saying stuff like this:
I am grateful to learn that the two great nations of Azerbaijan and Armenia are close to signing a historic peace deal. The peace deal will make stability and prosperity possible for the entire region and beyond! Make South Caucasus Great Again!
— Joe Wilson (@RepJoeWilson) March 13, 2025
It’s worth pointing out that even if Russian peacekeepers exit, Armenia’s economy remains mostly reliant on its big neighbor to the north, and Russia is heavily intertwined with the oil and gas industry in Azerbaijan — so much so that it’s largely Moscow benefiting from the EU importing more gas from Azerbaijan in order to make up for the loss of Russian pipeline gas.
But what about those other peacekeeping forces that have been in the news a lot lately — those from the EU that maniacs like Starmer and Macron want to send to Ukraine? Well, here they’re in Armenia. What will happen to them? From EVN Report:
Azerbaijani officials have specifically pointed to the EU’s monitoring mission in Armenia (EUMA), whose mandate was recently extended. Security Council chief Armen Grigoryan said in late February that the provision is “a general wording about the presence of third forces, which can pertain to the EU too, but there is no specific mention of the EU monitoring mission.” Pashinyan stressed that these provisions will enter into force only after ratification. Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan told parliamentarians on March 14 that after the agreement is signed, ratified and enters force, “we will reach acceptable and mutually beneficial solutions with our European Union partners regarding cooperation with the civilian mission.”
But it’s unclear if Armenia believes that “third-party forces” applies to EU personnel. According to Armenian political analyst Ruben Mehrabyan, it’s not certain they do since “the observers are not stationed at the border but only approach certain areas for monitoring purposes.”
It’s all enough to wonder why a deal was announced at all. Yet regardless of the reasons behind that decision, more fighting or an outbreak of sustained peace could mean another headache for Iran.
Iran Encirclement
While the Armenia-Azerbaijan “deal” could be viewed as a minor setback for Russia, it’s likely the larger target is Iran as one more piece in the US-led pressure campaign.
The NATO-Israel push to further isolate and destabilize Iran with a NATO Turan Corridor which sees the West link up hypothetical client states across Iran’s north looks to be steadily progressing.
As Armenia works with the West, Tehran sees both Israel and Turkey pursuing expansionary projects with the blessing of NATO while Azerbaijan is closely aligned with both Israel and Turkey.
The State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan is set to acquire a 10% stake in a major gas field off the coast of Israel.
Aliyev and Erdogan are allies of the Zionist regime and throughout the #GazaHolocaust, they have provided cheap fuel to Tel Aviv. pic.twitter.com/mXkkFXBt6d
— Seyed Mohammad Marandi (@s_m_marandi) February 1, 2025
And Armenia, which had enjoyed a close relationship with Tehran, is now also turning into a NATO forward operating base. Here is Iran’s major concern, from the Gulf International Forum:
The Strategic Council of Foreign Relations in Tehran, whose director is Iran’s former Minister of Foreign Affairs Kamal Kharazi, warned against the construction of the Zangezur Corridor in an article titled “Conspiracy to Create NATO’s Turan Corridor.” In that article, the council indicated that the corridor’s completion would have significant geopolitical consequences for Iran, Russia, and China. This corridor has been introduced to NATO’s “Turan Corridor,” a project ostensibly supported by Israel and NATO, and Turkey and Azerbaijan are alleged to want to foment ethnic unrest in the areas of Iran where Turks live by building this corridor. The author of the article believes that NATO’s Turan Corridor is supposed to directly bring NATO onto the northern border of Iran, the southern border of Russia, and western China in Xinjiang and complete the plan to encircle these countries and lay the groundwork for their disintegration. NATO’s presence in the Caucasus and Central Asia complements Russia’s blockade plan from the Black Sea, China’s blockade from the South China Sea, and Iran’s blockade from the Persian Gulf.
While Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said on Friday Tehran welcomes the agreement, Tehran has in the past made clear that any territorial changes along its border with Armenia and Azerbaijan — which includes any Zangezur Corridor — are red lines:
Regional peace, security and stability is not merely a preference, but a pillar of our national security.
Any threat from North, South, East, or West to territorial integrity of our neighbors or redrawing of boundaries is totally unacceptable and a red line for Iran.
— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) September 5, 2024
The implementation of the Zangezur Corridor would be a negative for Tehran in about every conceivable way. Iran would be eliminated as a bypass route around Armenia. Details from Al Monitor:
Iran earns a 15% commission from Azerbaijan’s gas supplies to Nakhchivan. It serves also as a route for Turkish exports to Central Asia. An average of about 12,000 Turkish trucks use the route monthly, with Iran charging passage fees of up to $800 for their 1,800-kilometer (1,120-mile) journey to the Turkmenistan border.
Ankara hates the fact it must go through Iran for trade with other nations of its great Turkic project, as it will have to do with a recent major gas deal agreed to with Turkmenistan.
More than just the money at issue for Iran is that it doesn’t want to lose influence over Azerbaijan, which relies on transit through Iran to connect to its exclave.
Turkic peoples, including Azerbaijanis, also make up roughly 20 percent of the population in Iran, and in the country’s West Azerbaijan and East Azerbaijan Provinces the population is mostly Azeris and Kurds. Baku makes some noise about self-determination there, but American neocons especially dream of using the Azeris and Kurds to destabilize the country. Eldar Mamedov has written at Responsible Statecraft about what a stupid and reckless idea this is, but has that ever stopped the US before? Oddly enough, Iran’s current president Masoud Pezeshkian, who came to power after his predecessor died in a helicopter crash on a return flight from Azerbaijan, is part ethnic Azeri, as is Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei.
Here we should also mention the peace steps between Turkey and the Kurds as another potential piece sliding into place for the encroachment eastwards of Greater Israel, Greater Turkey and the NATO stalking horse.
Back in January we wrote about a potential deal between Turkey and US over the “Kurdish question” and the lifting of an unofficial military tech embargo on Turkey. That has been steadily progressing as restrictions are eased on Ankara and as the US encouraged its Syrian Kurdish proxies to ink a deal with the Al Qaeda government in Damascus. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose government plays a major role in Damascus, backed the deal.
Consider the following:
- The agreement could stave off further conflict in northern Syria at a time of uncertainty over the future of US forces deployed there.
- Turkey is also reaching peace agreements with the Kurds, which is part of the escalating tensions between Tehran and Ankara.
- Armenian officials are suddenly taking a much softer stance towards mortal enemy Turkey as discussions on restoring diplomatic ties continue.
- The Syrian “government” is ignoring Israeli aggression against Syria and is instead attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon.
- Turkey is aligning more closely with the Gulf states, which are assisting in the US-led attacks on Iran ally Yemen.
Take a step back, and it looks like an encirclement of Iran, with a NATO push into the South Caucasus – Caspian region.
Tehran is dealing with HTS-led Nakba in Syria, Yemen under attack, threats from Israel and the US, endless sanctions, and Turkey, the US, Europe, and the Gulf states aligned against it.
Azerbaijan supplies 40 percent of Israel’s energy needs. The strong weapons-for-energy relations between the two countries is already a major concern for Iran where the media report on secret Israeli military bases in Azerbaijan and the belief that sabotage against Iran is frequently directed by Israel from Azerbaijan. The French and Americans have fully weaseled their way into Armenia where the US has one of its largest embassies in the world. And the Syrian Project backed by the Americans, Israelis and Turks are bringing the Kurds into the fold (or at least in the case of the Turks, putting off that fight until a later date) and likely looking to use them against Iran. Should there be an agreement allowing a Turkish-Azerbaijan corridor along the Armenia-Iran border, that would essentially mean Iran is boxed in by NATO and friends.
And some observers, such as Fiorella Isabel (based in Moscow) and Vanessa Beeley (Lebanon following her exit from Syria after the HTS takeover), believe that Russia is slowly drifting toward that camp through its ties to the Gulf states, Israel, and perhaps whatever the Americans are offering as part of a wider Ukraine deal, which could include agreements in Syria and the South Caucasus. It should be noted that Russia has supported the opening of the Zangezur Corridor through southern Armenia despite the fierce Iranian objections. Regardless, it looks increasingly unlikely Moscow would do all that much to aid Iran as it comes under more pressure from the US, Israel, and friends.
The Best-Laid Plans…
Any grand designs in the Middle East and South Caucasus are just as likely to go up in flames than meet with success.
There are plenty of problems just with the potential peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan, such as fierce opposition in Armenia (and the US) to the proposals. Baku is also insisting that constitutional changes must take place in Armenia to remove references in the document that implicitly challenge Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Karabakh. Armenian PM Pashinyan denies such references even exist but will make changes nonetheless. From Bne Intellinews:
Richard Giragosian, head of the Regional Studies Center in Yerevan, has suggested that constitutional reforms in Armenia could take until 2026 at the earliest, meaning that a fully ratified peace may still be years away despite the diplomatic breakthrough.
We’ll have to wait and see how that might align with other aspects of the “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran, but the American empire is persistent (see the decades working to topple the Assads in Syria), and Trump administration officials are, after all, saying that the fight against Yemen will be a long one.
While the US and Israel might be unwilling to engage Iran directly due to Tehran’s ability to defend itself — with or without Russian assistance — Washington will have no such qualms about ramping up the destabilization efforts and trying to entice someone else to do its fighting.
For now the US is in what it would likely see as a win-win situation: either Armenia and Azerbaijan resolve their differences and are part of the “solution” or there’s truth to Azeri media reports that more fighting is on the horizon. In the case of the latter, another war could destabilize Iran’s northern border while Azerbaijan and Turkey would likely take their corridor by force. Either way, Iran becomes more isolated and has another major problem to worry about.
