A Swing in Momentum

Everything seems different now.

A campaign that once felt like a death march has become a dance party for Democrats. Tens of thousands flock to rallies in battleground states and Zoom confabs online — White dudes! Cat ladies! Even venture capitalists for Harris! The campaign coffers are overflowing. And President Biden’s dark warnings about a “battle for the soul of America” have been replaced with a brat-infused pursuit of “the joy.”

Political campaigns, of course, are the art of telling a story that enough American voters will embrace. Donald Trump has his story about a nation in decline, and so far he’s sticking with it. At her rallies and online, Kamala Harris has crafted a tale of exuberant political opportunity.

But the more significant electoral question is whether the change at the top of the Democratic ticket has remade the fundamental dynamics of the contest. Nineteen days into the new Harris operation, a growing amount of data suggests that both campaigns face a changed political environment. While the contest remains tight, the momentum seems to have swung in Democrats’ favor. At least for now.

In today’s newsletter, I’ll examine three ways that Democrats have gained a sudden — and surprising — advantage.

I’ve covered presidential campaigns since 2008, and it’s been a long time since I’ve seen the kind of energy I observed at Harris’s kickoff rally in Atlanta last week. Beyoncé’s music was booming. The crowd of nearly 10,000 supporters was dancing and cheering. And Harris was loving every minute of it.