The Supreme Court’s affirmative action ruling last year upended admissions at selective colleges. Because they could no longer consider race, admissions officers — with oversight from their lawyers — had to overhaul their processes.
In coming weeks, we will learn about the results. With students back on campus, more colleges will report the racial makeup of their freshman classes. The colleges already have the data; they just haven’t yet announced it (with the exception of M.I.T.).
I’ve spoken frequently with university administrators about this subject in recent months. Today, I’ll offer a preview of the post-affirmative action landscape, organized around four points.
1. Variation is likely
Because M.I.T. reported its results first and experienced a sharp drop in Black and Latino students, it may be natural to assume that M.I.T. will be the norm. I’m not sure it will be, though.
M.I.T. isn’t a typical elite college. It focuses on STEM — science, technology, engineering and math — an area where Black and Latino underrepresentation is stark. M.I.T.’s recent announcement also contained a statistical anomaly that may have exaggerated the decline in Black and Latino students (as I explain below).
As more colleges report data, people inside higher education expect a wide variety of outcomes. Some colleges will probably have big declines. Others may have only modest changes.