Biden Has Openings for a Comeback on Two Weak Points

President Biden’s approval ratings are as low as ever. An NBC poll this weekend was only the latest example, showing him trailing Donald J. Trump by five percentage points nationwide, with his approval down to 37 percent.

But over the last few months, the conditions for a Biden comeback have gradually come into place. It hasn’t shown up in the polls, at least not yet. But for the first time since the 2022 midterms, Mr. Biden has an unmistakable political opening. If he can’t capitalize in the months ahead, it will heighten doubts about his political viability.

The two big developments have come on what voters say are Mr. Biden’s biggest weaknesses on the issues: the economy and the border.

First, the economy. Over the last three months, consumer confidence has surged to the highest level since July 2021. Lower inflation, sustained growth and Fed statements have brought the realization that a soft landing is at hand. The stock market has also made huge gains — the S&P 500 is now around 20 percent higher than during the last wave of New York Times/Siena College battleground state polls in late October.

It might be too soon to expect the improving economic picture to help Mr. Biden in the polls. Even now, most voters still don’t say the economy is good or excellent. They just believe it isn’t so bad and isn’t getting worse. And in today’s polarized era, presidential approval ratings have tended to move very slowly — usually no more than a few percentage points per month, even when political conditions are favorable. But in time, those conditions would be expected to begin to lift Mr. Biden’s ratings, at least among Democrats and independents.

Second, there’s immigration. Even Mr. Trump and his former advisers increasingly acknowledge the country’s growing economic strength, so the border seems poised to be the central Republican issue-based message. It’s a politically powerful argument. Voters increasingly rate immigration as a top problem facing the country and overwhelmingly say Mr. Trump would do a better job handling it. The issue is so challenging for Mr. Biden that it has been hard to see how he might defend himself.