Canadians vote today in an election strangely dominated by the United States.
Until early this year, Liberals suffered in polls, and Conservatives held a huge lead. Then President Trump threatened to annex the country. He imposed tariffs so steep that some economists foresee a recession. And he enraged Canadians, reversing the fortunes of each party. Liberals made Trump the center of their campaign and rapidly took the lead.
America’s shadow is also shaping the way many Canadians regard their ballot. Traditionally, voters elect their local representatives for Parliament, and then parties elect their leaders. The head of the biggest party is the prime minister.
This time, though, everything is personal. Many voters say they are thinking less about party loyalty and more about the man they want in the room negotiating with Trump. The question for voters is: Which candidate can best defend Canada against what they see as the American menace? (The parties both oppose tariffs and annexation but criticize Trump with varying levels of intensity.)
Today’s newsletter explains the stakes of a surprising race and introduces you to the two major candidates.
The banker and the politician
What do Canadians want to see in their next leader?
The Conservative Party’s Pierre Poilievre, 45, is more moderate than Trump on important issues including immigration and the size of government. He wants to limit both but not radically cut them.
Yet he holds other positions in common with the American president: He savors a culture war and denounces “woke ideology.” He likes cryptocurrencies. He has a sharp tongue. He antagonizes mainstream news outlets. He wants to defund the country’s national broadcaster. At a time when Trump looks like a threat to their country, this is too much for many Canadians.
For several years, the Conservatives dominated in polls over the governing Liberals, led then by an unpopular prime minister, Justin Trudeau. Poilievre crafted a popular line of argument. He said he’d cut taxes, fight crime, add housing and tackle an affordability crisis.
Then came Trump — and, soon after, Trudeau’s resignation. It was the perfect opportunity for the Liberal Party’s Mark Carney, who positions himself as the antidote to Trump and the best person to make a deal with him. Carney, 60, is a career central banker and boardroom executive. He calls himself a pragmatic and experienced crisis manager.
Under different circumstances, Carney would have what people in politics call a “boring” problem. He can come across as professorial and stiff. His critics complain that he spent much of his adult life overseas running in rarefied circles like the World Economic Forum in Davos; they call him an elitist. But his supporters say the very same attributes have prepared him to confront Trump.
With Trudeau gone and Trump on the march, Carney’s fortunes rose quickly. In March, the Liberals elected him leader and he became prime minister. Voters began turning against Poilievre immediately, and his 20-plus-point lead evaporated. Now Carney’s Liberals have a four-point advantage in polls as the country heads to the ballots.
The real question
Poilievre can’t run as another anti-Trump, so he has a different pitch: He pledges to reverse a decade-long period of national decline. That message resonates with voters who believe that Trudeau inherited one of the world’s greatest nations and left it a shadow of its former self. They blame the Liberals for stagnant growth, high inflation and spiraling living costs. Polls show that young men in particular have responded to this pitch.
Partly for that reason, Carney has distanced himself from Trudeau, whom he advised on the economy in recent years.
The election may come down to Trump and how important Canadians think he is to their future. Will centrist voters want to hold Liberals accountable for a recent period of malaise? Or do they think it’s more important to protect their economy (and perhaps their sovereignty) from the bully next door?
How many things in your home were imported from China? Your toaster almost certainly was. So were your pillows, probably, but most likely not your TV. Times journalists analyzed import data to create this room-by-room tour. Look at the red items: They will likely cost more, or be harder to find, because of tariffs.
Other Big Stories
Marriage: New data shows many Americans in their 20s don’t want to take their partner’s name, The Washington Post reports.
Metropolitan Diary: Tattoos and opera.
Most clicked yesterday: Zoom in on this photo for a closer look at who attended Pope Francis’ funeral.
Trending online yesterday: A driver plowed into a Filipino street festival in Vancouver, killing at least 11 people. See video of a witness describing the attack.
Lives Lived: Alexis Herman was a Democratic Party insider who grew up under segregation in Alabama and became the first Black secretary of labor. She died at 77.
SPORTS
N.B.A.: The returning Bucks star Damian Lillard left Milwaukee’s loss with a fresh injury. It highlighted a tough day for the league’s biggest names.
Obituary: Only two Knicks teams have won N.B.A. championships. Dick Barnett, a guard with an unusual but effective jump shot, played on both. He died at 88.
N.H.L.: Connor McDavid and the Oilers won, 4-3 in overtime, against the Kings. Read a recap.
ARTS AND IDEAS
The Book Review has a challenge for readers this week. Can you memorize “Recuerdo,” a poem by Edna St. Vincent Millay? A.O. Scott and Aliza Aufrichtig write:
Why did we pick “Recuerdo”? We combed through our shelves like Goldilocks, looking for a poem that was just right: not too difficult, but not too simple; not obscure but not a chestnut; not a downer but not frivolous either. We didn’t want a poem that was too long, and we thought something that rhymed would be more fun — and easier — to memorize than a cascade of free verse.
The challenge begins today with a simple task: Meet the poem and learn its refrain. You’ll learn more of it over the course of the week. You’ll also see videos of poets, novelists and actors reading along with you.
Start the poetry challenge here.