Normally I would put up a post on such an important event as Israel (according to US sources) delivering on its promise to strike Iran in retaliation for Iran’s retaliation for Israel’s attack on Iran’s embassy grounds in Damascus.
But there’s not a lot of solid reporting now, even before you get to the heavy spin deployed after Iran was successful in hitting three targets in Israel over last weekend. The eagerness to put narrative stakes in the ground, as the US did pretty successfully in its not-credibly-fast out of the box claim no way, no how did Ukraine have anything to do with the terrorist attack on Russia’s Crocus City Hall, means it makes sense to wait until there’s more commentary (and supporting evidence) regarding the claims made by both sides (as of now, the US, Oman, and Iran; Israel has yet to pipe up).
Remember the competing stories on the Iran strikes over the weekend. As we and many many others have pointed out, the fact of the missiles landing successfully and doing real damage to all the target is the key development. It shows Iran, even in a very well telegraphed salvo, was able to penetrate not just Israeli defenses, but also those of helpers like the US, France, and Jordan. But the Western press took up the line that Iran had sent a ginormaus number of flying thingies at Isreal, and nearly all were shot down. But most were drones whose primary role was to draw fire, both to deplete Israel and its allies’ stockpiles, and to expose how the combined air defenses worked. It would have been shocking, with a five hours flight time, if any of these drones had gotten through.
Scott Ritter, in a detailed discussion of this attack, has deemed that it established that Iran has deterrence dominance.
Now to the current and not exactly clear state of play. US sources declared Israel dunnit per NBC and CNN and that Israel informed the US but the US did not consent or participate.
There are strongly opposed stories as to the degree of damage, if any. The attack was on Isfahan, at just before dawn. Iran says there were only a few drone and they shot them all down. Anadolu Agency reports that US officials, anonymously, natch, depicted it as a ballistic missile attack….but “attack” does not necessarily translate into success. And so far there is a dearth of corroborating evidence:
There is no sign of any missile being detected, and there are a few countries in between Israel and Iran. A ballistic missile projectile is visible by a lot of people in these countries and we have seen no evidence of it so far.
— Sammy (@SammyXCVIII) April 19, 2024
Although this does not prove the negative, there were also what looked like phone-taken videos purporting to be the sky over Isfahan at the time of the attack, and they look to capture at least some of the drone shoot-downs. There is no footage of a missile entry.
Iran shut its airports only briefly and does not appear to have closed its airspace, Despite Twitter claims otherwise, Lambert looked at a flight tracker and planes were still in the air. Allegedly some airlines like Emirates quickly redirected flights over Iran based on breaking news, as opposed to official directives.
Arab News reports that Iran is downplaying the attack and not planning to retaliate. From its account:
Explosions echoed over an Iranian city on Friday in what sources described as an Israeli attack, but Tehran played down the incident and indicated it had no plans for retaliation — a response that appeared gauged toward averting region-wide war.
The limited scale of the attack and Iran’s muted response both appeared to signal a successful effort by diplomats who have been working round the clock to avert all-out war since an Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel last Saturday.
Iranian media and officials described a small number of explosions, which they said resulted from Iran’s air defenses hitting three drones over the city of Isfahan. Notably, they referred to the incident as an attack by “infiltrators,” rather than by Israel, obviating the need for retaliation.
An Iranian official said there were no plans to respond against Israel for the incident.
“The foreign source of the incident has not been confirmed. We have not received any external attack, and the discussion leans more toward infiltration than attack,” the official said.
A reason to think Israel did less than it might have wanted to was that, despite US hand-wringing about not having anything to do with this affair, is that Haaretz and per below, the Times of Israel reported that the US traded Iran escalation for a green light for Israel to attack Rafah, something the US has heretofore opposed vigorously:
Yesterday it was reported the US agreed to an onslaught against Rafah if Israel didn’t conduct a large strike on Iran.
This has to be the fear.
An onslaught against Rafah would mean the worst humanitarian catastrophe yet, in an already obscene genocidal war. pic.twitter.com/1FE6kuipYN
— Owen Jones (@OwenJones84) April 19, 2024
Reader sightings, particularly of fresh news and analysis, very much appreciated.