In the days since a Manhattan grand jury voted to indict former President Donald Trump, experts who monitor extremism have watched to see whether the historic news sparks a protest movement that mirrors the Jan. 6 insurrection.
It has not.
While hundreds of supporters showed up in Florida on Monday to cheer Trump’s short drive to his private jet before today’s arraignment, public demonstrations have not descended into civil unrest. At least not yet.
A protest in Manhattan on Tuesday morning, where Trump was due to surrender to the district attorney, appeared to feature more reporters than protestors — a pattern that has played out across the country in the last couple of weeks.
Trump pleaded not guilty in New York today to 34 felony counts in a case that centers on allegations of falsifying business records in connection with thousands of dollars in hush money.
In his courtroom remarks during the Manhattan hearing, Judge Juan Manuel Merchan had a stern warning for both sides in the case: “Please refrain from making statements that are likely to incite violence or civil unrest,” he said.
Back in Florida on Tuesday evening, Trump gave a speech railing against the charges, but did not call for widespread protests.
More:Why was Donald Trump indicted? Is he under arrest? What you need to know
So, why aren’t extremists who support Trump showing up to support their leader? Extremism experts across the country talked to USA TODAY about four possible reasons:
1. Trump hasn’t told his supporters what to do
Last month, when the former president announced (without evidence, and as it turned out, incorrectly) that he would be arrested within days, he called on his supporters to “PROTEST PROTEST PROTEST” on his Truth social account.
Trump supporters worry ‘It’s a trap’:Despite Trump’s calls for protests, few efforts emerge
But, unlike Jan. 6, when Trump specifically told the assembled crowd to march to the U.S. Capitol after his speech, the former president has been vague this time about what, exactly, he wants his supporters to do.
Trump hasn’t given his supporters a target for their ire. He hasn’t named a forum for a protest, and that’s key to drum up protests, said Brian Hughes, associate director of the Polarization and Extremism Research and Innovation Lab at American University.
“In addition to a mobilizing figure, like Trump, you’d need a time and a place — a mobilizing time and place to track these kinds of protests,” Hughes said. “With January 6, there was a very clear time and a very clear place, and a very strong call to action. From Trump, you haven’t had any of that.”
2. Some extremists have fallen out with Trump
Back in 2021, Trump was the unquestionable leader of the far-right extremist movement in America. From hardcore white supremacists to followers of the QAnon conspiracy theory, Trump held sway across a remarkable spectrum of the extremist landscape.
That’s changed, somewhat.
More:Two years since the Jan. 6 insurrection, extremist groups are fragmented, but live on
While Trump has moved closer and closer in his rhetoric to far-right extremists, he has also fallen afoul of some groups. Some chapters of the street gang the Proud Boys, notably have soured towards the former president, upset he hasn’t done enough to help members of their gang imprisoned for their actions on Jan. 6, said Jared Holt, a senior researcher at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue.
“All the people that got arrested after January 6 — Trump really hasn’t done anything to support them,” Holt said. “You know how many Proud Boys channels I’ve seen in the last couple of years saying … ‘Well, where was Trump when a bunch of our guys got arrested and did all this stuff thinking they were doing it for him?’”
Other extremists still support the former president, but some of the groups that are organized enough to get people to protest in numbers have, to some extent, moved on.
3. Extremists are still cowed from Jan. 6
Key extremist groups have seen their leadership decimated by the federal prosecutions of Jan. 6 rioters. More than 1,000 people have been charged in the riot, including some of the country’s most notorious extremist leaders. As USA TODAY reported last month, the country’s far-right activists remain skittish about protesting in large numbers in public.
Investigation:After Jan. 6 riot, hundreds of identifiable people remain free. Why?
“Jan. 6 prosecutions have had a major deterrent effect,” said Colin P. Clarke, Director of Research at The Soufan Group, which monitors domestic extremism. “If you think about 1,000 different people charged as a result of Jan. 6, and then you map out their social networks, that’s a lot of the people that would typically be filling this space that aren’t.”
And the criminal charges aren’t the only fallout from the insurrection and other related protests.
“The Proud Boys are facing a $22 million lawsuit, which is almost certainly weighing on the group, said Andy Campbell, author of the book “We Are Proud Boys: How a Right-Wing Street Gang Ushered in a New Era of American Extremism.” “The organization itself is clearly feeling the heat.”
4. Trump’s base thinks he’ll beat the charges
Many Trump supporters simply believe he’ll be found not guilty, experts said.
That’s especially true for QAnon supporters, said Katie McCarthy, an investigative researcher with the Anti-Defamation League’s Center on Extremism.
More:‘QAnon shaman’ leaves prison after Jan. 6
QAnon, a baseless and anti-Semitic conspiracy theory, has always posited that Trump is leading a complicated plan that begins with an initial indictment — even his own. For true QAnon believers, everything is now starting to play out, McCarthy said.
“They very much have placed their faith in the plan,” she said. “They believe that Trump’s indictment was supposed to happen. This is just one of the many steps that he’s got to take in order to usher in the storm, and finally be able to round up and dismantle all the folks from the deep state.”
Get up to speed:The week in extremism