Holiday Shopping Season Separates Winning Retailers From Losers

Shoppers are heading into the Black Friday weekend unsure how wide to open their wallets, retailers say, with many still feeling the squeeze of inflation and also worried that tariffs could make things even more expensive if they wait too long to buy.

Black Friday marks the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season, a make-or-break period for many retailers. Recent data suggests that consumer spending, the engine of the U.S. economy, remains relatively robust.

But reports from retailers hint at diverging fortunes, as shoppers have grown pickier about what they buy and where they buy it. An executive at Target described consumers as shifting from “resilient” to “resourceful.” A leader at Walmart said shoppers “seek value to maximize their budgets.”

These spending patterns are creating winners and losers in corporate America, perhaps most starkly illustrated by Walmart and Target.

Last week, Walmart beat analysts’ estimates for sales and raised its forecast for the full year for the second time in three months. Its share price jumped higher, setting fresh records.

A day later, Target — which features more discretionary categories like apparel and home décor — badly missed sales expectations, cut its forecast and saw the steepest drop in its stock for years.