Incumbents Are Getting Wiped Out In Primaries At Historic Levels

Something incredible is happening so far in the 2022 Congressional races.

So far this year, 2022 has seen the second-highest number of incumbent House members losing their primaries since 1948. Only 1992, the eve of the Republican Revolution of 1994, saw more incumbents get dumped in primaries.

While this may not seem surprising given disastrous polls for President Biden and a supermajority of Americans disapproving of the direction of the country, many other election years have seen similar dissatisfaction without a large scale dumping of incumbents. 

Keep in mind: according to a Pew Research report, in 2020, the reelection rate for House members was nearly a whopping 95%.

Thank you, Wyoming! pic.twitter.com/vZbdeKE6D9

— Harriet Hageman – Text WYOMING to 90103 (@HagemanforWY) August 17, 2022

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Trump Influence

One reason behind the shift is none other than President Donald Trump, who has laid waste to incumbent Republicans who voted to impeach him.

The most shocking example happened in Wyoming. Liz Cheney, daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, was completely blown out of the water by Trump-backed challenger Harriet Hageman. 

Despite being political royalty in the state, Cheney was trounced by over 30 points. 

Trump-backed challenger John Gibbs defeated Rep. Peter Meijer, who was first elected just two years ago. 

In Washington, America First candidate Joe Kent defeated Rep. Jamie Herrera Beutler. And so it goes.

Of the ten House members who voted to impeach Donald Trump, only two remain in the running for their respective districts. Four are retired or not running for reelection, and four lost their primaries.

But the same thing is happening on the left, with a struggle for power between liberals and the far-left.

A huge showing for #MI03 at the Michigan GOP State Convention today! It was also a pleasure meeting new friends from all across Michigan. Very excited for the #RedWave in Michigan this November! pic.twitter.com/ZHmdzEbrLR

— John Gibbs for MI-03 (@votejohngibbs) August 27, 2022

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Trouble For All

With roughly two months to go before the election, Republicans have some work to do.

With predictions of a red November as basically a done deal for Republicans, the recent win in a special election in New York’s 19th Congressional District by Democrat Pat Ryan over Republican Dan Molinaro should be a wake up call for the GOP.

Ryan had been behind by double digits in a few polls in the lead up to the election. But the poll on election night was the one that counted, and Democrats won.

The problem for Democrats, trying to distance themselves from Joe Biden and his record.

Several Democrat campaign ads have the candidate touting their breaking away from Biden and the Democrat Party on issues like taxes and defunding the police.

But as Biden and other White House officials hit the campaign trail to explain their legislative victories, candidates in tight races might just be stuck with Joe Biden tagging along for the ride.

Great to be at the Cowlitz County Republicans meeting tonight & to see @JimWalshLD19 ! County by county we will take back our state & our nation! pic.twitter.com/oEnUUlxvdK

— Joe Kent for WA-3 (@joekent16jan19) August 24, 2022