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The investment bank’s strategists, led by chief investment officer Michael J. Wilson, said in a Tuesday research note that the S&P 500 has yet to price in a full-blown economic recession.

Wilson and his team stuck to their 3,400 end-of-year price target for the index, which represents a 10% drop from current levels, but also argued stocks could fall further in a recessionary scenario in which corporate earnings take a hit.

“We don’t think 3,400 discounts a full-blown economic recession. In our view, such an outcome would imply a much lower trough for the S&P 500 of ~2,900,”

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