Yves here. Below is yet another example of continuing Collective West delusion. As most regulars know well, the US and Western weapons stocks have been badly run down over the course of the Ukraine war, to the degree that some NATO members have said they can’t provide more due to the need to have enough for self defense. US and NATO efforts to increase output have had very limited success even as Russia has ramped up its military production greatly and has even been improving the design of some weapons based on battlefield experience.
In addition, Russia has always assigned vastly greater priority to air defense systems over manned aircraft due to the latter being impractical and unduly costly relative to its great territorial expanse. Russia as a matter of doctrine has also preferred layered offensive missiles to fighters and bombers.
Russia slowly and systematically denuded Ukraine’s air defenses by attacks on the electrical grid, which initially targeted electrical distribution (as in relatively easy to repair), to force Ukraine to burn through its air defense missiles. Russia has also been targeting air defense assets but this has been an opportunistic affair. Russia, as chronicled particularly well by John Helmer, has been increasingly striking Ukraine’s electrical production. This much less easily remedied reduction in output comes as Ukraine and Europe face a particularly cold winter. Bear in mind that the increased demand on an already wobbly electrical system can produce more breakage.
Hence the sense of urgency from the US/NATO side. Not only is Ukraine suffering an intensifying front-line crisis, with Russia pushing the line of contact westward and a steadily increasing pace and Ukraine desertions rising, but it faces an internal crisis if power output over the low temperature months is closer to worst case scenarios (only 4 hours of power a day) than most hope. That means more Ukrainians attempting to leave, an accelerating economic collapse as business find it difficult to function, and of course, impaired military output and (probably) logistics.
So NATO intends to magic some new air defenses to Ukraine.
One additional point about the infrastructure: NATO is correct to insinuate or even state that Russia seems to have become more bloody-minded about the conduct of the war than before. I am not sure whether taking out electrical production was part of the plan when the grid attacks started. This may be the result of a more bloody-minded attitude as Ukraine has made attacks into Crimea and Russia that targeted civilians (the Crocus city hall terrorism had Ukraine fingerprints all over it). But it could also be Russia recognizing that Western countries don’t make the old Soviet standard electrical generation equipment that Ukraine uses. As we can see from the difficultly for US/NATO members to get out of their underwear to simply produce more 155 mm artillery shells, they would not set up factories just to build a large number of only-for-Ukraine electrical generation components over a few years and then have to cut output to close to zero. So Russia may have worked out that it wrecks Ukraine’s grid, it owns Ukraine as the only party that could/would restore critical parts of Ukraine’s production.
But there is another aspect to Russia’s increased willingness to wreck Ukraine infrastructure. As reader Maxwell Johnson noted in comments on Sputnik 2.0? Oreshnik and the Western Military Capabilities Gap:
I visited the Yuzhmash plant in 1993, when visiting Dnepropetrovsk on business (now Dnipro, but probably will revert to Dnepropetrovsk within the next few years). It is (was?) a huge sprawling Soviet facility. If the reports of its total destruction by a single non-nuclear missile are true, that’s remarkable.
Military aspects aside, I think the real significance of this strike on Yuzhmash is that the Russians are finally taking their gloves off. One of the reasons for Russia’s relative restraint in this conflict has been their desire to limit damage to key UKR infrastructure. There are plenty of tasty morsels in UKR that well-connected Russian oligarchs would love to get their hands on, and Yuzhmash is (was?) quite possibly the crown jewel of UKR industry. Putin’s decision to take it out sends a message that Russia will fight to the bitter end, even if it means laying waste to all of UKR. It reminds me of the British sinking of the French fleet in 1940; from that point onwards, the Germans knew that the British truly intended to fight it out:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack_on_Mers-el-K%C3%A9bir
Now to the main event. As a Western messaging outlet, RFE/RL simply reports NATO’s concerns and fond wishes.
By RFE/RL. Cross posted from OilPrice
- NATO members have agreed to prioritize protecting Ukraine’s infrastructure from ongoing Russian attacks.
- Russia continues to target Ukrainian cities and energy facilities with drones and missiles, causing civilian casualties and power outages.
- Explosions were reported in the Russian port city of Novorossiisk, a key hub for oil exports and military operations.
NATO members have agreed to make protecting Ukraine’s infrastructure a top priority, alliance chief Mark Rutte said on December 4, as Russia continues to pound Ukrainian cities and towns with drone and missile strikes.
Speaking to reporters ahead of the second day of a meeting of foreign ministers from the 32-member military alliance, Rutte said the gathering discussed providing Ukraine with enough air defense systems to protect its infrastructure against Russian attacks.
“There was a clear agreement around the table last night that to help Ukraine, particularly with its infrastructure, has to be a priority,” Rutte said.
“I’m confident that allies will follow up in the coming days and weeks in making sure that whatever they can supply to Ukraine will be supplied.”
Russia has been targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure for the third winter in a row, causing casualties and hampering the supply of electricity to thousands of civilians.
Early on December 4, Russian drones attacked the northern Cernihiv region, damaging several houses in a village, regional governor Vyacheslav Chaus said on Telegram.
In the central region of Vinnytsya, debris from a falling drone set a house on fire in the Haysyn district, partially destroying it, Ukraine’s State Emergencies Service said on December 4.
Separately, the Ukrainian Air Force said Russia launched a guided air missile and 50 drones at targets in Ukraine.
Ukrainian air defense systems shot down 29 drones in nine regions — Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, Khmelnytskiy, Ternopil, Mykolayiv, and Donetsk — the air force said, adding that 18 drones were neutralized after their navigation systems were jammed using Ukraine’s electronic warfare capabilities.
Separately, strong explosions were reported overnight in Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiisk, one of the main hubs for Russian oil exports and an important military port that hosts part of Russia’s Black Sea fleet.
An air alert was announced and Novorossiisk Mayor Andrei Kravchenko called on residents to take shelter because of a drone attack.
Neither Ukraine nor Russia have so far commented on the explosions.