Oil dives 4%, below $100 on China lockdowns, reserves release plan

An oil & gas pump jack is seen near Granum, Alberta, Canada May 6, 2020. REUTERS/Todd Korol/File Photo

NEW YORK, April 11 (Reuters) – Oil prices fell about 4% on Monday, with Brent crude tumbling below $100 a barrel on worries that the pandemic will cut demand in China and as International Energy Agency (IEA) countries plan to release record volumes of oil from strategic stocks.

Brent futures fell $4.35, or 4.2%, to $98.43 a barrel by 1:46 p.m. EDT (1746 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $3.75, or 3.8%, to $94.51.

That put WTI on track to drop to its lowest close since Feb. 25, the day after Russian forces invaded Ukraine, an action Moscow calls a “special military operation.”

Brent was on track to fall to its lowest close since March 16.

Fuel consumption in China, the world’s biggest oil importer, has stalled with coronavirus lockdowns in Shanghai, analysts at the Eurasia Group consultancy said.

Shanghai, China’s financial center, started easing lockdowns in some areas on Monday despite reporting a record of more than 25,000 new COVID-19 infections. read more

“Even when the restrictions in Shanghai are lifted, China’s zero-Covid policies will likely remain a drag on demand,” Eurasia Group said, noting Shanghai lockdowns likely reduced China’s overall oil consumption by up to 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd).

To help offset a shortfall in Russian crude after Moscow was hit with sanctions, IEA member nations, including the United States, will release 240 million barrels of oil over the next six months. read more

“The release of strategic government oil reserves should ease some market tightness over the coming months, reducing the need for oil prices to rise to trigger near-term demand destruction,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

The release of Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) volumes equals 1.3 million bpd over the next six months, enough to offset a shortfall of 1 million bpd of Russian oil supply, JP Morgan analysts said.

In a sign that the supply-demand balance is loosening, those SPR releases could bring WTI prices for near-term delivery below those for longer-dated contracts, said Robert Yawger, executive director of energy futures at Mizuho.

When prices for front months are lower than future months, the market is in contango. In contrast, in early March, when concerns about supply shortages were high, the WTI curve was in what Yawger called “super-backwardation” with each month at least $1 a barrel below the prior month through November 2023.

Adding pressure to crude prices, the U.S. dollar (.DXY) was on track to strengthen for an eighth straight day against a basket of other currencies. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. read more

The European Union’s (EU) executive is drafting proposals for an embargo of Russian oil, the foreign ministers of Ireland, Lithuania and the Netherlands said, although there was no agreement to ban Russian crude. read more

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) told the EU that sanctions on Russia could create one of the worst ever oil supply shocks and it would be impossible to replace those volumes. OPEC signaled it would not pump more. read more

Additional reporting by Bozorgmehr Sharafedin in London, Florence Tan and Isabel Kua in Singapore and David Gaffen in New York; Editing by David Goodman, Mark Potter and David Gregorio

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