Opinion | Nikki Haley Was an Illusion. It Just Shattered.

Nikki Haley was made for New Hampshire. New Hampshire was made for her.

I kept hearing that, kept reading that, as various political observers turned a myth into a mantra, persuading themselves of her potency and Donald Trump’s vulnerability not only in the Granite State but also beyond it. They wanted so much to believe that Trump’s grip on the Republican Party might be loosening. They were desperate for assurance that he wouldn’t return to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

So a wishful narrative took shape: New Hampshire’s quirky voters would buck Iowans and back Haley. Independents would overwhelm the MAGA minions. She’d notch an upset victory and then, all across a Trump-pummeled land, voters would suddenly realize that they had an alternative, suddenly recognize polls that showed Haley with a better chance in a one-on-one contest against President Biden than Trump had. They would come to their senses. And on the far side of that epiphany gleamed Haley, her youth, ethnic background and gender giving the Republican Party a new vitality. A new image. A fresh start.

What a lovely illusion. It just shattered. The results on Tuesday night, when Trump followed his commanding victory in the Iowa caucuses with a compelling one in the New Hampshire primary, leave Haley with no plausible path to the Republican nomination, not unless something extraordinary happens. The scenario in which she was supposed to topple Trump can now be seen for what it always was: the latest of many fictions in which those of us who rightly fear American democracy’s ability to survive Trump sought consolation.

We told ourselves that Robert Mueller’s investigation or Trump’s first impeachment or his second impeachment would stop him. We told ourselves that the methodical work of the congressional committee investigating the Jan. 6 storming of the U.S. Capitol would seal his political doom. We told ourselves that he couldn’t survive four indictments encompassing 91 felony counts. We told ourselves that his outbursts were finally growing too vicious, his temper too volcanic, his lies too outrageous and ornate.

Haley flourished in the context of those calming tales. She was a vessel for our hopes. As a result, we upgraded her debate performances from decent to dazzling. We sometimes put as much emphasis on her rise in the polls as on how fatally far behind Trump she remained. The difficulty of accepting Trump’s continued hold on Republican voters became a readiness to accept that voters secretly hankered for the likes of her.

But the evidence never held up. Sure, she raised buckets of money. So did Ron DeSantis — from the same sorts of Republicans, the ones who lost control of the party back in 2016. Yes, she outperformed expectations in the past, becoming governor of a deep red state that didn’t seem to be fertile ground for a trailblazer like her. But she wasn’t running against anyone like Trump back then. She wasn’t dealing with anything like the MAGA movement.