Gelinas: “Corporeal vacancy” is such a great term!
Staples: Nicole, thanks for the shout-out to my 12th-grade English teacher, Ms. Riley.
Kirtzman: To Brent’s point, polls have found vast numbers of New Yorkers feel the city is going in the wrong direction. And fear of crime is, arguably, the No. 1 driver of that. I was on a stalled subway train recently, trapped in a tunnel for five to 10 minutes as a large, deranged man screamed at us. It was a scary moment, and I wondered, as I often do, whether our leaders really understand what goes on down there. In that sense it’s no surprise to me that Cuomo’s message is that he has come to save the day (so to speak). I think his video was pitch perfect in that sense.
Gelinas: There is no question that city voters are unhappy with public safety and quality of life, and that their unhappiness has been backed up by some crime rates (double-digit percentages higher than the pre-Covid norm, in some cases). But! Here’s another weird thing at a weird time in (another) weird year: Don’t look now, but the crime stats are actually looking pretty sharply good for the first two months of this year — felony crime rates are down double digits from last year (although still higher than pre-Covid), and we didn’t have a subway murder during the first two months of the year, the first time since before Covid. I have no idea whether these stats will continue, and/or will translate into a changed public perception, but it’s a (quite welcome) early surprise in this race.
Gay: So much of what we’re really talking about here isn’t just about crime or public safety, but the way New York City felt before the pandemic compared to afterward. Do you think that’s what may be driving nostalgia for Cuomo? Or is it something more?
Gelinas: Absolutely, in terms of the public feeling. That’s why I found it strange that Cuomo was promoting a communal Covid success story this week — the idea that we beat Covid. Leaving aside whether or not we did and who, if anyone, was responsible, I just don’t think the public has a feeling of “Yay, we really beat Covid and are thriving now because of it!” that Cuomo can tap into. As for what’s driving what Mara calls nostalgia, I think for Cuomo, for now, it’s more the name recognition, a public perception that he can actually get certain goals accomplished based on past performance, and a dearth of centrist candidates in the Democratic primary field.