A House special election in NY-19 that was widely watched as a bellwether district has resulted in a surprising Democratic victory for candidate Pat Ryan.
Decision Desk HQ projected:
Decision Desk HQ projects Pat Ryan (D) is the winner of the special election for U.S. House District 19 in New York, defeating Marc Molinaro (R)#DecisionMade: 11:32pm EDT
Follow more results here: https://t.co/joiucISVxD
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) August 24, 2022
Dave Wasserman of The Cook Political Report has also called the election for Democrats:
I’ve seen enough: Pat Ryan (D) defeats Marc Molinaro (R) in the #NY19 special election. This is a huge victory for Dems in a bellwether, Biden +1.5 district.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 24, 2022
NY-19 is a national bellwether district that in the last three presidential cycles has gone Obama, Trump, and Biden. It is a swing district. Democrats have held the current House seat since 2018, but Republicans spent a large amount of money in the district trying to flip the seat to signal a red wave in November.
The Republican message in the district was Biden and inflation, and the Democratic message was centered on Roe, freedom, and protecting democracy.
The most devastating part of the loss for Republicans is that it signals that they have a messaging problem. As prices and inflation fall, the electorate is not as angry, and running against could prove to be highly ineffective.
The overturn of Roe has motivated Democrats and gotten them out to the polls, and history has shown that when Democrats show up for midterm elections, they do very well.
The GOP’s red wave fantasy is officially dead, as Democrats are gaining undeniable momentum in the midterm election.
Mr. Easley is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association