What might the Fed do now?
Stocks, cryptocurrencies, the dollar, oil — they’re all down sharply again on Monday on concerns that the U.S. economy is slowing faster than expected. It comes after a rough week for global markets.
That has reignited criticisms that the Fed is moving too slowly to cut rates as economic conditions look shakier.
Here’s the latest:
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S&P 500 futures were down 3 percent on Monday. Mega-cap tech stocks, which have driven much of the market’s gains this past year, were especially bruised: Nvidia was down 11 percent premarket, while Apple was off 7.5 percent. (Adding to the jitters was Berkshire Hathaway again cutting its stake in Apple and Nvidia reportedly delaying shipments of its most advanced A.I. chip.)
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Japan was especially hard hit. The Nikkei 225 fell more than 12 percent, battered by concerns about tech stocks and worries that the Bank of Japan moved too quickly in raising interest rates last week.
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Bitcoin tumbled more than 10 percent, wiping out more than $100 billion in value off the volatile digital currency.
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Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell despite growing tensions in the Middle East.
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Investors fled to safe-haven assets, helping lift sovereign bonds. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to a one-year low. (Bond prices rise when yields fall.)
Goldman Sachs economists this weekend raised the odds of a U.S. recession in the next year to 25 percent from 15 percent; they cautioned that such a risk was “limited.”
But the Goldman note — along with recent disappointing earnings results, and lackluster economic reports including Friday’s jobs report — have compounded global fears that the U.S. is headed for a hard landing. All this has stoked speculation that the Fed will need to take bold action, such as a prodigious half-percentage point cut next month or an exceedingly rare emergency cut within the next week.
Criticisms of the Fed are getting louder, especially from the I-told-you-so crowd. “The Federal Reserve has been late in cutting rates, but that has been true for some time,” Paul Donovan, a UBS economist, wrote in a client note on Monday. “The policy error is making things worse for lower income households.”
Companies have been warning for some time that lower-income consumers are pulling back, muddying their profit outlooks. “The tone for companies on earnings calls will be key to watch in the coming weeks,” Lori Calvasina, the head of global equity research at RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a note on Sunday.
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