The New Race

With 101 days until Election Day, I want to use today’s newsletter to frame the coming campaign. No doubt, more surprises lie ahead. But there is now enough stability — and enough polling since President Biden’s exit — to make three points about the race.

1. Trump’s lead

Donald Trump has led the 2024 race all year, and he leads Kamala Harris today.

In The Times’s national polling average, Trump is ahead of Harris by one point, 47 percent to 46 percent. That’s narrower than Trump’s recent lead over Biden, but similar to Trump’s lead over Biden before last month’s debate, as my colleague Nate Cohn points out. The race has in some ways reset to where it was.

There are also a couple of important differences. Harris is a far stronger campaigner than Biden. She’s a fiery, skilled speaker who can describe her own agenda and make the case against Trump in ways that Biden could not. She has more potential to make gains than Biden did.

That said, polls point to a potential weakness, too: Harris appears to be a worse fit with the Electoral College than Biden. She is stronger among younger voters and voters of color but weaker with older voters and white working-class voters. Because swing states are disproportionately old, white and working class, Harris is likelier to win the popular vote and lose the election than Biden was.

Think of it this way: It’s a bad trade for a Democrat to win more votes in California and fewer in Pennsylvania. As a result, Trump’s narrow national lead is probably a bit stronger than it looks.

2. Trump’s focus

Trump doesn’t seem to be focused on swing voters.

His speech at the Republican convention started effectively, political analysts thought. He told the story of having almost been murdered five days earlier. He thanked Secret Service agents and honored Corey Comperatore, the former fire chief killed that day. It was a version of Trump that he rarely projects.