Yves here. Tom Neuburger discusses how the US is in the midst of a regime change, which has precedents in US history. The most obvious manifestation is how Trump is trying to cut back Constitutional and legal protections. Where might this go? He acknowledges that one possibility is a popular revolt, but despite the US being full of guns, both the atomization of what once were communities and the fact that many of the opponents are professional in blue city islands dependent of the red heartlands for supplies does not bode well for organized resistance. Then again, one of the newly downtrodden groups is vets, and they do know a thing or two about taking terrain.
By Thomas Neuburger. Originally published at God’s Spies
Before we get started…
The following represents notes toward something much larger. Where are we headed? That’s not certain, though there aren’t many choices, given what’s happened and what we know of the players.
Though there’s so much more going on in the world, what we’re seeing here is a massive paradigm shift in how Americans are governed and what they’ll do about it. As do others, I have thoughts. Stay tuned.
The Next American Constitution
I once began work on a book with the working title, The Fourth American Constitution. The San Francisco Chronicle published an introduction to the idea in their Fourth of July issue. The main point is this:
Each year on this day, Americans celebrate our founding principles and the birth of our nation, but in these chaotic and polarized days, it is also important to remember that the United States was born from a crisis of unity and has experienced two more at roughly 70-year intervals — the Civil War and the Great Depression.
Both nearly tore us apart, yet each sparked a civic rebirth. After each great rupture, the government was restructured; each took the nation closer to its founding ideals; each brought greater liberty, justice and opportunity to expanding groups of Americans; each changed forever and for the better the relationship between government and the people.
We’re now in the midst of a fourth crisis, from which will emerge the next agreement about how and for whom our government operates. Will it produce a constitution that once again advances our founding principles and expands opportunities, or will this be the first American crisis that institutionalizes a stripping of rights, freedom and wealth?
Though much work was done, the book was never completed, since each new month seemed to offer a new direction — light from a different dawn — none of which seemed reliable.
The years since then have been iffy, to say the least. Where were we going? Who knew? Then the Trump-Musk regime arrived and things clarified.
What If the Right Wins Absolutely?
One of the puzzles I wanted to solve in the book was this: What if the Right wins absolutely? What would we be as a country under full right-wing rule?
That’s been hard to determine, though there were clear indications. I decided the Right was factious, and a lot depended on which group would end up on top. If the Christian Nationalists, the God-bothering absolutists, or groups of that stripe should win out, we’d have one kind of place. God before gold, God with list of demands.
Or what if Charles Koch won out? America would be slightly different — a terrible place, but not the same hell hole as the New Apostolic Reform people would create. God as a cover story, gold calling the shots.
A Techno-Fascist Takeover
So who actually won? That’s been answered. Thanks to Trump’s love of revenge — if you try to remove the king, it’s best to succeed — and his bromance with a man he’s decided swings admirable pipe, the group on the Right we can safely call techno-fascists has come out ahead.
They’ve captured a man who thinks like a mafia boss, and that man has captured the crown — meaning, both houses of Congress, the Court (for now), and the throne, something we once called a Presidency, then inflated to king.
Where Are We Headed?
Where are we headed? There aren’t many alternatives. In 2028, Trump may step down or not. In 2028, the country elects a Democrat or it doesn’t. In 2028, the Musk revolution is ended or it’s not.
1. Trump Doesn’t Leave in 2028
I originally thought that of course Trump would leave office when his term expires.
Can you really see Trump wanting to be president forever? That’s work. His goals today are revenge, glory and golf. And money. Maybe still sex. I sure don’t see him signing for any job he’s stuck in forever. We wants to murder his enemies, bask and get out. At least as I see it.
But consider the people behind him, who feed on his fury: Elon Musk, Peter Thiel and their ilk; Russ Vought, a primary author of Project 2025; the whole of the Heritage crowd; the people who created John Roberts to be who he is, who financed his Court. Crazed billionaires, bankers and moguls of every stripe. They have transformational dreams that don’t end with Trump. Why not press on?
They may need Trump to remain, but he can step back, play golf, be a figurehead president while his friends carry on.
Think of it from their standpoint, these Friends of Trump. Once Social Security is gone, it won’t be rebuilt. The same with the rest of the changes. What remains won’t be America in the modern sense. Why not stay and write the new rules, our Fourth Constitution?
2. A Democrat Wins in 2028
What if Trump leaves and a Democrat’s elected? The result is anyone’s guess, but I don’t see the national party defying its donors. The donors are key. I don’t see state parties, good as a few may become, having national clout. And I fear the surrender I saw from Sanders last time will be reenacted by others. Seems they all back down when they have to, even Dennis Kucinich.
3. A Popular Revolt
That leaves a popular revolt. If the people rebel — what does that even look like? A million marched against the Bush-Cheney Middle East War. What good did it do? What good did the George Floyd protests do, after all’s said and done? Raise consciousness? Keep a single person safe from murdering cops? Are cops really less deadly these days?
It will take a Mario Savio “shut it down” fight, one where
you’ve got to put your bodies upon the gears and upon the wheels, upon the levers, upon all the apparatus, and you’ve got to make it stop.
It would have to last until Trump was forced to resign. It would have to persist in the face of murdering cops. It would have to last through endless media opposition (because real revolution is a threat to everyone’s order). It would have to have critical mass.
The revolt would have to persist despite everything lined up against it. If it wins, rejoice, though the nation would tear apart (I’ll expand on that later). If it fails, our next Constitution is the Trumpian one.
For Now Trump Has All the Power
We can hope for good things, and maybe we’ll get them. Who knows? But the fact is, right now Trump has all the power.
If he wants to defy the courts, what then? If he wants to use NatSec force to attack opposition, what then? If he punishes states’ defiance, what then? He’s defying the court today. He’s already used goons to hand people to foreign torturers. He’s successfully blackmailed Maine into compliance. Which state is next? There’s nothing Trump has to fear if wants to press on.
Avenues Out
As to avenues out of this mess, I see three:
• Trump’s loss of reputation is a possible lever. Would he want to die hated? Not sure.
• The security apparatus may tire of him, or tire of those behind him. By “tire” I mean see them as threats to their own sense of order. In that case, good-bye Trump. But what would remain?
• At some point, Trump and his friends may say “we’ve done enough.” That would stop the assault … for a while. But if those wins include destroying the whole New Deal, I’m not sure that counts as “out” for the rest of us.
What to Watch Next
Three things to watch for, ways to judge your next move:
• What will the Roberts Court do as cases come up? Acquiesce, split the baby, or pull the king off of his throne? If the third, what will Trump do? Ignore them or change course?
• If his friends wants to break Social Security — make sure checks don’t go out — they’re well on their way. If they do that, how will they deal with the fury that follows? They can respond “So what?” — invoke the No one can stop meAmendment — but will they?
• Finally, will they treat citizens like alien others? Remember, Obama set precedent on that. Will Trump go that far: use AI to find his enemies, then “deal with” the ones he thinks he can safely destroy? Or will he stop short of that?
The answers will tell you what’s coming. The Roberts Court; Social Security; stripping citizens of rights. We’ll soon see how this plays out.
