The Next Congress

Congress certified President-elect Donald Trump’s victory yesterday. Now that Republicans will hold the coveted “trifecta” — the White House, the Senate and the House — they’ll have their way in Washington, right? Maybe. The success of the Trump administration will hinge on congressional Republicans’ ability to stay united. It won’t be easy.

In the House, Speaker Mike Johnson, who was re-elected on Friday, will have the smallest majority in history: 217 to 215. That means every bill Republicans pass will need nearly unanimous support from his famously fractious conference.

In today’s newsletter, I’ll break down some of the disagreements that could define the new Congress — and potentially derail Trump’s agenda.

Spending is the issue that most divided House Republicans in recent years. Many of them say they came to Congress to cut federal spending and rein in the nation’s debt. So, unable to unite his conference around a spending plan, Johnson has instead relied on Democratic votes to pass important measures, from stopgap bills to avert government shutdowns to the aid package lawmakers approved for Ukraine. He argued such an approach was justified because he was dealing with a Democratic Senate and White House.

No longer.

Because Democrats are unlikely to vote for the Republican majority’s bills, Johnson will need to bring his whole conference along. But any measure that wins over the most anti-spending Republicans could alienate more centrist Republicans — and vice versa.