Yves here. I hope readers will welcome Sal Bayat, who graciously has allowed us to publish his latest piece on the world according to crypto. He uses a recent extensive piece by former Goldman lawyer, now Bloomberg columnist Matt Levine as a point of departure.

I must confess to finding Levine maddening. He’s a fantastically skilled writer, able to gear shift rapidly from entertaining baby-talk level overviews (way harder to do than they look, you need to remain accurate when dumbing down) to very technical detail. But it’s not Levine’s control of his register or his mastery of arcana that I find frustrating, but his default posture. Levine affects an airy lack of concern, even when discussing clear misconduct. Surely everyone got the memo that you need to watch your wallet?

Bayat takes a dim view of the entire crypto enterprise. And if you add in one assumption, which is looking like a fact, it’s not hard to see why. Yes, crypto came out of a libertarian rebellion against traditional money and banking regimes (as in aside, they are finding they need to recreate all the pieces of old fashioned banking, and often less efficiently, witness for instance transaction speeds). The crypto rebels hoped that their new creation would rival fiat currencies. But they are barely being used in real world commerce.1 Their connection to tax avoidance/evasion suggest that even using them for large transactions might attract undue attention of the anti-money-laundering police.

So crypto has its own ecosystem of wallets, exchanges, even funds. But you can barely use it to buy real world stuff. Users hopefully make money in crypto-land, cash in their winnings, and spend it in fiat land.

But have you missed the joke? All the costs of that crypto infrastructure, the hardware, energy cost of mining, the office rent, the connectivity, the lawyering, the employees, the investors, the accountants (assuming they exist), the taxes, ultimately have to be paid in fiat even if initially paid in coin. That makes the entire system a predator of the real economy. Yes, traditional finance is also a rentier activity if not regulated into being nearly entirely dull and not very profitable. But don’t kid yourself into thinking that crypto is any less extractive.

By Sal Bayat, a technologist and 15 year veteran of the telecom industry who designed and built out a wide array of infrastructure. Originally published at his website

Tether

The lack of critical discussion about ‘The Crypto Story‘ is shocking, more so when you consider gems like this:

Believe it or not, that’s a comment on Tether and it’s a bold departure from what most crypto industry observers think.

Many would argue that the folks at Tether are liars and criminals who applied the lessons of creative writing courses to their balance sheets and spawned a digital token used to manipulate and prop up the price of cryptocurrencies.  But Levine doesn’t discuss Tether as a blight on the industry, it’s just another little quirky crypto factoid.  Bloomberg should consider notifying the NY State Attorney General’s office to let them know they made a grave error about Tether’s trustworthy owners.

Tether is worth discussing in detail because it’s integral to crypto’s dependence on recruitment for new fiat money inflows.  Glossing over Tether’s effect on crypto is like skipping over the subject of cocaine at a seminar on drug cartels.

If you’re running an investment fraud, you have a few problems. The first is that you’re a shitty person.  Next is that you better make damn well sure that the amount of money being removed from the scheme doesn’t exceed the total amount of liquidity available.  This can get tricky, you want to service withdrawals so people can be seen making money from your scheme, but you can’t have too many people taking out their money or the whole thing will come crashing down faster than an algorithmic stablecoin.

The whole point is to keep the scam running for as long as possible.  Duration drives credibility, and credibility drives recruitment.  More suckers means more money, which means greater ‘returns’, which means more people, which means more money… and voilà.  A beautiful ‘positive feedback loop’ of value is created.  To sustain it we must minimize withdrawals and maximize deposits.  If only we weren’t subject to the limitations of fiat currency that are imposed by reality and the demands for cold hard cash.  Enter Tether, stage left.

Tether helps minimize outflows and maximize inflows in our investment fraud.  Fiat withdrawals are limited, instead of walking away with cash, participants are given digital tokens ‘valued’ at a dollar, and incentives are created to encourage investment into new scams (tokens).  Tether also helps with inflows, exchanges don’t need to cook their books with fake fiat deposits and risk investor confidence or the ire of law enforcement should they be discovered.  There’s a better way to create buy/sell orders that manipulate token prices.

If I accept deposits in a fake currency (Tether) and consider those deposits to be equivalent to fiat, then I’m not breaking any laws.  Better yet, I don’t have to worry about real cash deposits needed to pump my scam and I don’t have to move fiat around when wash trading.  So Tether fulfils the function of maximizing deposits as well.  Not only does it create synthetic liquidity, but by manipulating the prices of tokens skyward, Tether helps create fiat inflows from new suckers.  Is anyone else reminded of Galbraith’s bezzle?

Imagine colluding with the only grocery store in town to raise prices.  The store owner needs to justify price increases to the Mayor, so instead of arbitrarily raising prices, you agree to use monopoly money to buy groceries and increase demand.  More ‘money’ chasing after a finite amount of groceries increases the price (fraudulently and arbitrarily), and you and the owner split the excess fiat profits.  The store owner has plausible deniability, you have a bunch of free money, and the public is left holding the grocery bag.

In return for providing fake liquidity to the industry, Tether can buy tokens through intermediaries and sell them for real fiat currency, exchanging their funny money for the real thing.

Of course, this only applies if Tether is a criminal enterprise and their reserves are fraudulent.  So take what I said with a grain of salt, but you start to understand why people are so interested in the details of Tether’s holdings and business operations.

If I wrote an all encompassing Crypto Story, I might be inclined to discuss the possibility for a vast criminal conspiracy at the heart of the industry, but that’s just me. Levine on the other hand may consider it to be another one of those things that’s an “odd use of time”.

Et Cetera

Speaking of criminality not worth mentioning, Levine doesn’t appear to cover wash trading in crypto, despite it being rampant.  Amazingly, this topic is avoided even in the context of “Rare monkey JPEGs”, or NFTs.

Painting the tape is a common enough occurrence with standard crypto tokens, but I didn’t think it was possible to talk about NFTs and avoid the subject of wash trading entirely.  It’s as if someone wrote a comprehensive biography about the life of Rick Astley without ever letting the words “Never Gonna Give You Up” touch the page.  You’re missing the point of the whole thing.

Levine’s article is positioned as “The Only Crypto Story You Need” but it rarely peers at what lay beneath crypto’s surface. On the other hand, I enjoy Matt’s writing, and some of his insights are valuable and informative, one of my favorites is from the section on trust:

Levine hits it out of the park on that one.

Which makes me scratch my head as to why he can’t call the industry on their bullshit in so many other cases.  Speculation, market cap, exchanges, front running, wash trading, Tether, these are just a few of the things that are wrong with the article, but there’s so much more.

Not least among them the belief that blockchain has desirable properties as a database, the idea that blockchain or crypto is somehow useful for video games, the quoting Poleg’s technological pseudo profundity to imply that there are web3 use cases, or the implication that crypto fraud isn’t THAT effective when it’s managed to fund the DPRK’s nuclear weapons program.

After reading through my notes, there’s at least another dozen problems worth covering, but I can’t because this article already risks being longer than ‘The Crypto Story’.  The issues range from minor misunderstandings, to the flat wrong, to internalized crypto propaganda.

Money For Nothing

The thing that bothers me the most is that Matt gets it. He understands what the economy and financial system should be, he knows the difference between real wealth and simulated value, but there’s some invisible force stopping him from taking the final logical step.

Levine identifies what’s good for the economy and he points out that crypto doesn’t do these good things, but he never manages connect the two facts and just say out loud that crypto is bad for the economy and for the civilization that depends on people doing useful things.

Not only does he understand that providing utility to a market is what underpins value, but Levine even identifies HOW crypto undermines productive economic output.  Its network effects have NOTHING to do with being useful, and everything to do with demanding money up front!

Networks are useful to users, that’s why they spread, and it’s also the reason why users value the network. The network is valuable because it is useful, that incentivizes network operators to make useful things and do useful work. “The economics of crypto tokens reverse that.”

Instead of being incentivized to make something useful that people want to use, crypto is costly, it demands value from users.  The incentive for economic agents in such a system is to onboard as many participants as possible while doing as little real work as is required.  Rather than supply side incentives for the production of positive economic output, we get weird distributed corporate bonds (tokens) where, in the case of PoW, the invested value is destroyed instead of transferred to a corporation (as with PoS).

Utility is what drives real network effects and the production of wealth for our society.  The artificial network effects that crypto creates (the demands for invested value that scale with participation) remove capital and supply side economic incentives from the real economy.  Levine recognizes that finance is anchored to real world utility and that a similar issue of expanding value for the few, and contracting utility for the many has been creeping into our present financial system for decades.

But there’s no realization that crypto is a weaponization of the forces in our economy that extract value without providing meaningful utility.  The truth is that society is impoverished when we allow monopoly rents to be extracted by the already fabulously wealthy.  Rampant economic inequality destroys aggregate societal wealth.

The corruption and injustice of the existing financial system, the de-industrialization and financialization of our economy, has driven millions into the waiting arms of crypto con artists.  The public has been made desperate from decades of stagnating or declining real wages, and Cryptovangelists have been quick to inculcate the flock and prepare the faithful for a good fleecing.  Despite identifying all of its pieces, this cruel irony appears to be lost on Levine.

The article’s final judgement echoes the liturgical refrain we’ve heard shouted down to us from crypto’s pulpits and rarefied peaks for over a decade. After 40,000 words, the reader is told, ‘We’re still early!

This entry was posted in Currencies, Dubious statistics, Economic fundamentals, Free markets and their discontents, Guest Post, Hedge funds, Investment management, Market inefficiencies, Payment system, Regulations and regulators, Ridiculously obvious scams, Risk and risk management on by Yves Smith.