One of the biggest sticking points in the long-running feud between Washington and the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğanin in Türkiye is the latter’s purchase of Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile systems back in 2017. Washington is now proposing that Türkiye move the Russian systems to the US-controlled sector of Incirlik Air Base, in south-central Türkiye.
Türkiye had been asking Washington for Patriot missile systems with technology transfer for years prior to the S-400 purchase, and the US kicked Türkiye out of the F-35 program and for the first time slapped sanctions on a NATO member.
The S-400 is widely considered superior to the Patriot, and it would no doubt be beneficial for the US to get its hands on it — especially as the systems are reportedly being deployed in Iran to guard against potential attacks from Israel and the West.
While Türkiye tested out the S-400 system, it still isn’t operational. In December, Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Güler told reporters it would only be utilized if and when needed — an odd use for the weaponry that cost Ankara $2.5 billion.
The news of the S-400 talks between the US and Türkiye first appeared in the Greek newspaper of record, Kathimerini, and its chief source was Michael Rubin. If you’re not familiar with Rubin, he was once the “pudgy-faced boy wonder” of neocon villains running the Iraq debacle notorious for his thin skin and stupidity. While he’s grown older, he’s none the wiser and can most recently be found daydreaming about Israel assassinating Erdoğan and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Therefore, I initially took the Kathimerini report with a large grain of salt. It has, however, since been confirmed by other outlets. Recently, during an interview with Anadolu Agency, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the following:
“We are considering creative formulas and solutions. Ultimately, the president’s final direction will be decisive, but we are closely following the political dimension. At least both sides agree that this issue has become a stumbling block in bilateral relations.”
The fact that Russia recently felt the need to issue a reminder to Türkiye about contractual obligations of the S-400 deal likely means there’s some real momentum behind the Washington-Ankara talks. Here are some more details about the US proposal and motivations by both sides. From Kathimerini:
Türkiye would avoid an about-face, which from its perspective would equate to international embarrassment, while not break the terms of, or violate any possible binding clauses in, its contract with Russia.
Despite the complexity of the issue, it seems that both sides now wish the relevant discussions to reach a successful conclusion, as this would solve a major problem for Washington and NATO and allow Ankara to return to the F-35 fighter jet program.
Despite all the reported issues with the F-35 program (and there are plenty), Türkiye is reportedly eager to return to it due to the oft-reported fear that its air force will be outclassed by that of Greece, which remains in the F-35 program.
The bigger problem for Türkiye, however, might be how its burgeoning defense industry is being held back by US sanctions. A resolution to the S-400 issue and a return to the F-35 program would also mean a lifting of the sanctions.
The Turkish Response
It has so far been a no, although Ankara has not completely closed the door as evidenced by Fidan’s statement above. Other ideas have been kicked around.
Turkish businessman and former Minister of State responsible for state-owned banks Cavit Çağlar, who is close to Russia, has in the past suggested selling the systems to another country with Moscow’s blessing like India or Pakistan.
“I would remove the S-400s from Türkiye if I were in charge,” the former minister told the Turkish-language newspaper T24. “Our plan was to either acquire additional systems or produce them domestically. We need to find a way out. We have good relations with Russia; the best course of action is to negotiate and explain that, as a NATO member, we cannot use the S-400s against NATO. We need to address this issue promptly.”
Another Turkish proposal is to just keep the S-400 in the box. According to Turkish sources, Ankara is pitching the permanent warehousing of the system with procedures for the US to continuously “verify” their disuse. That would mean Türkiye paid Russia $2.5 billion for some large dusty boxes, but it’s not enough for the Americans who are apparently determined to get their hands on the S-400 at Incirlik.
For some, such as the hawkish Foundation for Defense of Democracies, not even that is enough and they are instead proposing the following:
…Biden should insist that Ankara provide one battery of S-400s to the United States. Türkiye should additionally donate its remaining S-400 inventory to the Ukrainian military to help with Kyiv’s ongoing war effort against Russia. A resolution to the S-400 impasse along these lines would demonstrate Ankara’s commitment to its NATO allies and allow the United States to study an important instrument of an adversary’s defensive capabilities.
Türkiye is yet to back down on that demand, which sounds more than reasonable from the Turkish side, but it’s hard to ever rule out Erdogan’s ability to surprise.
The Russian Response
Russia has been patient with Erdogan’s unpredictability in the past, but this might represent a step too far. Here’s what Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told a news conference following at the 79th session of the UN General Assembly:
“The arms contracts contain the end-user certificate paragraph,” he recalled. “In order to do something else with the products that are delivered under such a certificate, which mentions the country that has received these weapons as the end user, the consent of the country that sold these weapons is needed.”
The US is of course trying to exploit a potential loophole in that contract by having the systems remain on Turkish territory at Incirlik. However the lawyers would sort it out, it could mean that the US has access to one of Russia’s more potent defense weapons. I’m not a military hardware guy, but here’s Military Watch explaining how this would be a blow to Russia:
Russia relies very heavily on the S-400 and other ground based air defences to compensate for the small size of its fighter fleet relative to NATO’s and its lack of a large fifth generation fighter fleet to counter NATO’s fleet of F-35s. A compromising of the system to the country’s Western adversaries could thus have highly detrimental implications for Russian security…the S-400 remains Russia’s foremost air defence system and is expected to form the backbone of its air defence network for well over a decade to come.
And not just Russian security. China, Belarus, and India also have S-400 systems, and Russia has deployed them in Syria and is in the process of doing so in Iran. Lavrov added with typical Russian subtleness that “Türkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is an experienced statesman. He makes decisions on any issue in the interests of his people and his country.”
Indeed, Türkiye has benefitted from its improved ties with Russia in recent years. While Ankara is eager to overcome US sanctions hurting its procurement of hard and software for its growing defense industry exports (more on that below), it also needs cheap and reliable energy. That’s where Russia comes in. It supplies Türkiye with nearly half of its natural gas and a quarter of its oil. The two nations also cooperate on nuclear energy with Russia financing and building the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, which allowed Türkiye to join its long-sought-after place in the club of nuclear power nations, and the two countries are in talks to construct another.
On an individual country basis (excluding the EU as a whole which remains far and away Türkiye’s largest trading partner) Türkiye receives its most imports from Russia, and for Turkish exports Russia is eighth.
BRICS, Sanctions, and Greece
Türkiye is also on the short list to join BRICS, potentially as soon as at the Oct. 22-24 summit in Kazan, and is desperate for more investment from China, which it is slowly receiving. There is also smoke about Türkiye moving closer to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which is evolving into a security guarantor for the Eurasian continent against Western efforts to divide and destabilize.
Dr. Hasan Ünal, professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Maltepe University in Istanbul, writes that all that progress would be thrown out the window should Erdogan go through with the American proposal for the S-400. With all the F-35 problems, its exorbitant price tag, and in light of the pagers and radios attack against Hezbollah calling into question the wisdom of purchasing tech or weapons from the West, Ünal calls it a “gift from God” that Türkiye was kicked out of the F-35 program.
Nonetheless, there seems to be a real fear in Türkiye that its air force is being surpassed by Greece’s. The US has been doing its part to ratchet up tensions between the two countries over disputed islands, territorial waters, and Cyprus.
Washington has abandoned its largely neutral stance on Türkiye’s relationship with both Greece and Cyprus and is ramping up military aid to Greece, turning a port near the Turkish border into a naval base, and sending weaponry to Cyprus after ending a decades-old ban on arms sales.
Despite the Biden administration’s agreement in January to sell Türkiye F-16s in return for Erdogan lifting his objections to Sweden joining NATO, Ankara’s air force is composed of aging F-16s, F4s, and F5s. Meanwhile, in January Greece signed a $8.6 billion deal for up to 40 F-35s. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who was educated in the US at Harvard, Stanford, and then Harvard Business School for an MBA before going on to work for Chase Bank in London, McKinsey & Company, and getting a 2003 nomination from the World Economic Forum as a global leader of tomorrow, justified the hefty price tag as Greeks deal with endless austerity by explaining that the US will send frigates, C-130 transport aircraft, armored tanks, and vehicles at no extra charge.
Türkiye has kicked around substituting the fifth generation F-35 with the Russian 4.5th generation SU-35 or a 4th generation European fighter jet like the Typhoon or Rafale, but neither ever gained much traction.
Ankara is progressing on its own fifth-generation fighter, KAAN, but doesn’t expect to have them ready before 2030, and that could be overly optimistic as the KAAN still needs to be fitted with a domestically-produced engine and is being slowed down by Türkiye’s reliance on several foreign-made components for high-tech systems. According to Nordic Monitor, “At the forefront of countries posing difficulties in Turkey’s procurement is Germany, which has been withholding export permits for firms supplying Turkey with much-needed engines and power systems for its domestic projects.” Here’s the International Institute for Strategic Studies:
With development led by TAI, Turkiye has sought foreign partners, notably for aircraft design and local engine production. Following talks with a number of foreign partners, TAI contracted BAE Systems for aircraft design in 2017. Finding a partner for local engine production has proven more difficult; talks with Rolls-Royce, through a joint venture with Kale Group, have seemingly led nowhere. Instead, the MMU, now called Kaan, will be initially powered by US firm GE Aerospace’s F110 engine, previously assembled by Turkish Engine Industries (TEI) for the F-16, while Turkiye explores options. However, as China and Russia have found, developing next-generation aircraft engines is no easy feat. There is no guarantee that a purely indigenous effort will be successful, and it is highly likely to be hugely expensive. Turkiye may need to revisit a foreign partnership to ensure the Kaan project meets its ambitions.
So likely more than the F-35 or tensions with Greece and Cyprus, the biggest issue for Türkiye is likely the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act which continues to be wielded against Türkiye in response to the S-400 purchase. Türkiye’s growing defense industry is being kneecapped by the sanctions, which hurt particular imports like semiconductors and microchips. On September 19, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said plainly “Our goal is to exit CAATSA because our Defense Industry Presidency is currently subject to CAATSA.”
Türkiye increasingly produces high-quality, cost-effective defense equipment (especially drones) with 2023 being a record year. The August issue of Defense News listed five Turkish companies in the 100 top defense companies of the world, but it’s struggling to move into higher end weaponry due the sanctions and embargoes by Western nations. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is increasingly relying on Türkiye for shells to keep up with demand from America’s proxy wars. A Turkish company, General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems, even had to be brought in to build three 155mm projectile metal parts lines in Texas due to US struggles.
Erdogan reminded the US of this at the UN meeting, telling reporters that it would be impossible for Ankara and Washington to achieve their long-term cooperative trade and security goals if the United States does not abandon “additional tariffs in the iron, steel, and aluminum sectors, probes and the CAATSA sanctions.”
While Washington no doubt appreciates the help on the 155mm shells and the Turkish drone exports to Ukraine, it always wants more, and this time it’s advanced Russian technology on a platter.
Türkiye’s transactional relationship with both West and East is valuable for the country, which can extract concessions from both sides. Moreover, it fits with how Turkish elites under Erdogan view the country as much more than a bit player in a bloc. It is a regional power and aspires to be more, yet it’s struggling to find a path there with the US standing in the way.
Considering the bridges Turkiye would burn with Russia and potentially others like China by handing over the S-400 to the US, one would have to believe that the US is offering more than just sanctions relief and F-35s — and again there’s no indication that Turkey will agree to the US proposal. Bu what else could be going on behind the scenes? With Washington having essentially taken control of Armenia it could offer Turkiye’s coveted corridor to Azerbaijan (the best time to do so would be with Iran preoccupied). And with Israel (with US backing) looking to “remake” the Middle East, there are plenty of possibilities to tempt Erdogan with there if he’s again dreaming of glory in Syria. Moscow is now warning that the US and UK are planning to use Ukraine to unleash a chemical weapons false flag provocation in Syria. So it might be game on there again. Or who knows, maybe Mossad and the CIA managed to pack every cell phone in Turkiye with explosives.
Given all the unknowns, I’d still wager against Türkiye turning over the S-400 to the US at Incirlik. It seems a step too far even for Erdogan, but I’ve also learned it’s never wise to underestimate the US and Israel’s penchant for chaos, nor is it smart to bet on what Erdogan is going to do.
