President Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China took effect at midnight. By now, you’ve probably heard about the risks: higher prices, slower economic growth, a trade war. Trump acknowledges the potential for economic pain. Yet he signed off on the levies anyway — 25 percent for Canada and Mexico, another 10 percent for China.
Why? He believes he can’t advance his “America First” agenda without rebalancing trade with other countries. This, he says, will make them do things that are in the United States’ interest. With these latest tariffs, he has demanded that Canada, Mexico and China do more to stop drug trafficking.
But the tariffs could also harm American interests. If Canada and Mexico decide that America is no longer a reliable partner — one that keeps its word and prizes stability over chaos — they may seek other customers for their goods. They could even turn to U.S. adversaries like China. America would end up more isolated on the world stage.
This issue isn’t just about trade; it’s about America’s alliances in general. To bend other countries to his will, Trump has suspended military aid to Ukraine, publicly hectored world leaders, threatened to withdraw U.S. troops from Europe and pulled out of international groups like the World Health Organization.
Trump might succeed. But he also might scare off would-be friends. Today’s newsletter will look at two potential outcomes for Trump’s policy: one in which tariffs and pushy diplomacy accrue advantages for the United States and another in which the nation stands weaker and alone.
America first?
Trump’s America First approach has produced policy wins. When the president threatened Canada and Mexico with tariffs last month, both countries made limited concessions to appease him. Canada promised to name a “fentanyl czar.” Mexico said it would move troops to its northern border.
Those countries are still trying to curry Trump’s favor to avoid tariffs. Few migrants now come through the U.S.-Mexico border, my colleague Annie Correal reported. And Mexico has stepped up efforts against organized crime. For the first time in years, cartel operatives say they fear arrest, my colleagues Natalie Kitroeff and Paulina Villegas explained.
Trump’s friendlier stance toward Russia has also led European countries to commit to more spending on their militaries. They plan to defend the continent themselves — exactly what Trump wanted. And Trump’s impatience with Ukraine moved its president to offer some of the country’s mineral wealth to the United States. Russia, too, has dangled economic opportunities to get in Trump’s good graces.
Trump’s critics do not like the abrasive, chaotic approach he has used to get some of these wins. But the means matter less to Trump than the ends. In his view, he pushed other countries to take U.S. interests more seriously.
Or America alone?
The counterargument is that it’s still early. Foreign leaders may appease Trump for now, but eventually they may shift away from working with America because it’s too fickle.
Consider Australia’s example. Over the past few years, it worked with America to confront China. But what if Trump makes his own deal with China, as some Australian officials fear he might? Then Australia would suffer China’s wrath alone while America reaped benefits, Fareed Zakaria, the CNN journalist, told Ezra Klein. After that, it would be unlikely to trust Washington again.
Meanwhile, European countries are building up their militaries so they won’t need America’s protective umbrella. They’re crafting a “coalition of the willing” to help Ukraine, Mark Landler and Jeanna Smialek reported. They could use their newfound independence to, say, more aggressively help each other with trade and block American goods. Canada and Mexico, too, could look for more buyers of their goods in Europe and China. If Trump spurs shifts like those, an America First strategy may create new rivals, instead of stronger allies, for U.S. power worldwide.
Some of these outcomes might seem unthinkable. After all, Canada, Mexico and European countries have been close allies with the United States for generations. But those friendships endured because foreign leaders saw Washington as reliable; the president, no matter who he was, had their backs. If American allegiances shift wildly from election to election, the foundation for these friendships may crumble.
There are already signs that Trump’s approach is backfiring. Some European officials warn that America is no longer a friend, Steven Erlanger reported. Canadians are more nationalistic and anti-American since Trump took office, Vjosa Isai wrote. Down south, “government and businesses have rekindled a ‘Made in Mexico’ campaign,” James Wagner explained.
Even in the short term, the U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal collapsed after Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky’s shouting match in the Oval Office last week. In that moment, Trump’s style actually pushed Ukraine to not put American interests over its own.
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