You have probably read that the war in Ukraine is a stalemate. But conditions have changed in recent months — in Russia’s favor. It has captured more territory, and it seems likely to launch a larger offensive later this spring or summer. In the meantime, Ukraine’s ability to fight back has deteriorated since the U.S. largely stopped sending aid in December.
The $60 billion in Ukraine aid that the House passed over the weekend has the potential to change the situation yet again. The Senate is likely to pass the bill in the coming days, and President Biden has signaled that he will sign it.
In today’s newsletter, I’ll explain how the aid package could affect the war.
Ukraine’s needs
American funds will help Ukraine restock two things that have played pivotal roles in the war: artillery shells and antiaircraft munitions.
The war has often revolved around artillery, which are large guns that armies use to fire explosive shells and hit targets from a great distance. Both sides have used artillery to kill troops and destroy tanks and bunkers from miles away, weakening the enemy before an attack. Artillery has also stopped advancing armies.
In recent months, though, Ukraine has started to run out of artillery shells. Russian forces have fired five to 10 times as many shells as Ukraine. “That’s just not sustainable,” my colleague Eric Schmitt, who covers national security, told me. “Ukraine would eventually have to give up territory and pull back.”