What to Watch for in East German State Elections on Sunday

On Sunday, voters in the eastern German states of Saxony and Thuringia go to the polls in elections that are being carefully watched in Berlin and across Europe, in part because the far-right Alternative for Germany party is poised to do well in one or both elections.

The two states, which were under Communist rule until 1990, will be voting for their state house representatives and ultimately their state government.

While those eligible to cast ballots in the two state elections represent only about 7 percent of Germany’s total electorate, the vote still promises to be important — for both the potential success of an anti-immigrant, nationalist party and because of the rise of a left-wing party built around a former Communist, known as the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, after its leader. That party, founded only this year, is likely to outpace most mainstream parties, and it is predicted to come in third in both state house races.

The results are expected to be a clear sign of the East’s discontent with the federal government in Berlin. Some or all of the parties that make up Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party governing coalition could be kicked out of the state houses in Saxony and Thuringia for failing to reach the required 5 percent threshold in Sunday’s elections.

The likely results will bring a dilemma for mainstream parties: either do everything possible to prevent the Alternative for Germany party, or AfD, from forming a state government — further aggrieving voters who say their voices are not heard — or go against party orthodoxy and work with the far right in the hopes of reining it in.

How important are these elections?

Even if the elections themselves are for two state governments — and Saxony and Thuringia are the seventh and 12th largest by population of Germany’s 16 states — the symbolic importance of a far-right party potentially winning a plurality of votes in Germany, nearly eight decades after the end of the Nazi era, cannot be overstated.