2:00PM Water Cooler 4/24/2024 | naked capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Patient readers, my strategy of “lying flat” has, so far, induced a rapid rebound in my symptoms, so hopefully I will be more or less normal tomorrow. –lambert. No orts and scraps today; I will resume my policy of masterful inactivity. From my reading of the Trumo trial so far, it’s sound and fury, with Bragg’s thoery of the case looking even weaker. More tomorrow.

Bird Song of the Day

American Woodcock, Powatan WMA Powerline Trail, Powhatan, Virginia, United States. Courtship, display, or copulation; Flying.” Having a hard time finfind an American Woodcock that doesn’t sound digital.

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

2024

Less than a year to go!

RCP Poll Averages, April 19:

Here this Friday’s RCP polling. Trump is still doing very well in almost all the Swing States (more here), leading with one exception: PA. Forget all the arithmetic, and look at PA as a test of the Trump campaign’s basic competence. What are they doing to fix this? (I’ll work out a better way to present this, but for now: Blue dot = move toward Biden; red dot = move toward Trump. No dot = no change (presumably because state polls are not that numerous so far from election day).

Trump (R): (Merchan/Bragg): “Trump trial: Key players at the centre of the former president’s criminal case” [BBC]. “Mr Bragg has adopted a novel legal theory that will turn a misdemeanour – falsifying business records – into a felony. He has alleged that Mr Trump changed the business records to cover up a second crime – the violation of New York campaign-finance laws. His office alleges that the Trump campaign sought to hide the affair from voters ahead of the 2016 election. Legal experts have mixed views about whether the gambit will work, but Mr Bragg has pulled together an experienced team of prosecutors who are very familiar with Mr Trump to make the case.”

Trump (R): “Trump’s map edge: Biden has tougher path to victory, veteran Dem adviser says” [Axios]. “With over six months to go until Election Day, given the volatility in the world and the weaknesses of Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump, it would be foolish to make firm predictions about specific results. And other electoral map scenarios are possible: Recent polling shows Mr. Biden with a narrow lead in Minnesota, a state that usually votes for Democrats for president. While it is mathematically possible for Mr. Biden to win without carrying Minnesota, it is unlikely he will be elected if he cannot carry this traditionally Democratic state. For the third election cycle in a row, a small number of voters in a handful of states could determine the next president of the United States. If the election remains close but Mr. Biden is unable to regain support from the core group of voters who propelled him to victory in 2020 — young and nonwhite voters — then we could be headed to a repeat of the 2016 election. The outcome of that election was decided by fewer than 80,000 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.” • Normally deprecate swipe-friendly interactive maps, but this is a good one.

Newsom (D): “Gov Gavin Newsom worries about ‘overindulgence,’ ‘obsession’ with Trump hush money trial: ‘Less is more’” [FOX]. “MSNBC host Jen Psaki asked the Democrat governor about a ‘chorus’ of people who think the hush money trial is only helping Trump politically, which she said was driving her ‘crazy.’” No doubt. More: “She questioned what Newsom might tell an undecided voter about why the case should matter to them. Newsom argued it should matter, but also said that Trump ‘doesn’t care if he’s the hero [“face,” actually] or the heel, he just wants to be the star.’ ‘When we are focusing on him, I do worry electorally that he has a slight advantage. And so, I am a little concerned about the overindulgence around the day-to-day. I get it, I totally get it. The consequential nature of a criminal trial is profound and outsized, in some respect, but not more outsized than democracy, more outsized than Dobbs,’ he said, referring to the Dobbs decision, which overturned Roe v. Wade.” • I think that Newsom makes a good point, but I also think the Democrats won’t be able to help themselves, and more than the Republicans impeaching Clinton could.

Pritzker (D): “Pritzker says Chicago is prepared for DNC amid cease-fire protests” [The Hill]. “‘Just understand that Joe Biden is fighting for peace in the Middle East, is fighting to end the hostilities between Israel and Gaza, and make sure that we’re providing humanitarian aid there,’ he said. When you think about the protests, it’s Joe Biden that’s standing for peace, and a lasting peace at that, and it’s the Republicans that, frankly, would stoke the flames of war in the Middle East.’ Pritzker noted that protest groups calling for a cease-fire shut down an interstate outside of Chicago’s O’Hare Airport last week as part of a national movement, and that Chicago Police quickly escorted the groups off the roadway faster than other protests in the country. ‘Our Chicago Police Department was able to get those folks off the highway faster than any other city in the United States. And they’re prepared for the Democratic Convention,’ he said. ‘Look, we believe in free speech, and we’re going to allow people to protest and say whatever it is they want to say,’ he continued. But the reality is, we’re also going to make sure that people have ingress and egress and that they’re safe in our state.’”

Republican Funhouse

“How Mike Johnson Got to ‘Yes’ on Aid to Ukraine” [New York Times]. “He huddled with top national security officials, including WILLIAM J. BURNS, the C.I.A. director, in the Oval Office to discuss classified intelligence. He met repeatedly with broad factions of Republicans in both swing and deep red districts, and considered their voters’ attitudes toward funding Ukraine. He thought about his son, who is set to attend the U.S. Naval Academy in the fall. ‘And finally, when his plan to work with Democrats to clear the way for aiding Ukraine met with an outpouring of venom from ultraconservatives already threatening to depose him, Mr. Johnson, an evangelical Christian, knelt and prayed for guidance.’” • And came up with the most ridiculous rationalization I’ve ever heard. Technically, however — and I’m not sure what to make of this — there’s apparently a deep split between “ultraconservatives” and the “Christian right??

Pandemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

Airborne Transmission: Covid

“Exploring indoor and outdoor dust as a potential tool for detection and monitoring of COVID-19 transmission” [Cell]. “This study investigated the potential of using SARS-CoV-2 viral concentrations in dust as an additional surveillance tool for early detection and monitoring of COVID-19 transmission. Dust samples were collected from 8 public locations in 16 districts of Bangkok, Thailand, from June to August 2021. SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in dust were quantified, and their correlation with community case incidence was assessed. Our findings revealed a positive correlation between viral concentrations detected in dust and the relative risk of COVID-19. The highest risk was observed with no delay (0-day lag), and this risk gradually decreased as the lag time increased. We observed an overall decline in viral concentrations in public places during lockdown, closely associated with reduced human mobility. The effective reproduction number for COVID-19 transmission remained above one throughout the study period, suggesting that transmission may persist in locations beyond public areas even after the lockdown measures were in place.” • Lockdowns work but only as part of a layered approach.

Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions

Vinay having a good one:

“Privatization,” of course, is never barbaric:

It’s the highest form of civilization!

Transmission: Covid

“Age-specific nasal epithelial responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection” [Nature]. In vitro model incorporating in vivo data. From the Abstract: “Here we investigate differences in the cellular landscape and function of paediatric (<12 years), adult (30–50 years) and older adult (>70 years) ex vivo cultured nasal epithelial cells in response to infection with SARS-CoV-2. We show that cell tropism of SARS-CoV-2, and expression of ACE2 and TMPRSS2 in nasal epithelial cell subtypes, differ between age groups. While ciliated cells are viral replication centres across all age groups, a distinct goblet inflammatory subtype emerges in infected paediatric cultures and shows high expression of interferon-stimulated genes and incomplete viral replication. In contrast, older adult cultures infected with SARS-CoV-2 show a proportional increase in basaloid-like cells, which facilitate viral spread and are associated with altered epithelial repair pathways.”

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (Biobot) Our curve has now flattened out at a level far above valleys under Trump. Not a great victory. Note also the area “under the curve,” besides looking at peaks. That area is larger under Biden than under Trump, and it seems to be rising steadily if unevenly.

[2] (Biobot) No backward revisons….

[3] (CDC Variants) As of May 11, genomic surveillance data will be reported biweekly, based on the availability of positive test specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring every two weeks. 2. occurring twice a week; semiweekly.” Looks like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to worry about. Time will tell.

[4] (ER) CDC seems to have killed this off, since the link is broken, I think in favor of this thing. I will try to confirm. UPDATE Yes, leave it to CDC to kill a page, and then announce it was archived a day later. And heaven forfend CDC should explain where to go to get equivalent data, if any. I liked the ER data, because it seemed really hard to game.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Flattening out to a non-zero baseline. I suppose to a tame epidemiologist it looks like “endemicity,” but to me it looks like another tranche of lethality.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Still down. “Maps, charts, and data provided by CDC, updates weekly for the previous MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Department Visits, Test Positivity) and weekly the following Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.

[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

[8] (Cleveland) Slight uptrend.

[9] (Travelers: Posivitity) Uptick.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) JN.1 dominates utterly.

[11] Looks like the Times isn’t reporting death data any more? Maybe I need to go back to The Economist….

Stats Watch

Manufacturing: “United States Durable Goods Orders” [Trading Economics]. “New orders for manufactured durable goods in the United States surged by 2.6% month-over-month in March 2024, following a downwardly revised 0.7% growth seen in February and slightly exceeding market expectations of a 2.5% increase. It marked the largest monthly advance in durable goods orders since last November.”

Tech: “The question that no LLM can answer and why it is important” [MindPrison]. Good examples. Conclusions: “The implications are that LLMs do not perform reasoning over data in the way that most people conceive or desire. There is no self-reflection of its information; it does not know what it knows and what it does not. The line between hallucination and truth is simply a probability factored by the prevalence of training data and post-training processes like fine-tuning. Reliability will always be nothing more than a probability built on top of this architecture. As such, it becomes unsuitable as a machine to find rare hidden truths or valuable neglected information. It will always simply converge toward popular narrative or data. At best, it can provide new permutations of views of existing well-known concepts, but it can not invent new concepts or reveal concepts rarely spoken about.” Censorship Indistrial Complex: “Exactly what we want!”

Tech: “The Man Who Killed Google Search” [TechMeme (JustTheFacts)]. Grab a cup of coffee, this is great. It’s so horrid I really can’t pick out on item more horrid than the next The only thing that surprises me is that there’s no Google equivalent for Boeing’s John Barnett. Can’t we just nationalize Google, fire the top management, roll the code base back to, say, 2009, and start over?

Tech: “Google delays third-party cookie demise yet again” [Digiday]. “Google is delaying the end of third-party cookies in its Chrome browser — again. In other unsurprising developments, water remains wet… Google did not outline a more specific timetable beyond hoping for 2025. This is the third time Google has pushed back its original deadline set in January 2020. Back then, the tech behemoth promised to phase out third-party cookies “within two years” to beef up security for users while surfing the web. But since then, Google’s hit the brakes twice already. And every time, it’s been to give the ad industry more prep time for something that’s been surrounded by a lot of ifs, buts, and maybes. Even at the start of the year, as Google phased out cookies for one percent of browser traffic, questions loomed over when more significant changes would occur.”

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 34 Fear (previous close: 31 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 39 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Apr 22 at 12:48:27 PM ET.

Groves of Academe

Portrait of a professsor not getting it:

cannot wrap my mind around how someone can fuck up understanding 4’33” like this and be a university professor https://t.co/u3zS98d76S

— kate wagner (@mcmansionhell) April 24, 2024

Can anybody find a decent well-attested video of the Israeli protester allegedly being poked in the eye by a flag? Big flag with a pole? Small, hand-flag? Thanks@

News of the Wired

I am not feeling wired today.

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